Ilhan Omar holds a commanding lead in Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District race due to the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+32 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. Omar secured the Democratic nomination with over 80 percent in the August 11 primary against several challengers, while Republican nominee John Nagel, a former state trooper, prevailed in a low-turnout primary focused on crime, fraud, and public safety. All major race raters classify the contest as Solid Democratic, with models projecting roughly a 54-point margin. The November 3 general election features limited polling and an additional independent candidate, leaving little evidence of momentum shifts. A major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican performance would be required to alter the current trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-05 House Election Winner
MN-05 House Election Winner
$50,056 Vol.
$50,056 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ilhan Omar (D)
96%
John Nagel (R)
4%
$50,056 Vol.
$50,056 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ilhan Omar (D)
$18,383 Vol.
96%
John Nagel (R)
$31,673 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ilhan Omar holds a commanding lead in Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District race due to the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+32 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. Omar secured the Democratic nomination with over 80 percent in the August 11 primary against several challengers, while Republican nominee John Nagel, a former state trooper, prevailed in a low-turnout primary focused on crime, fraud, and public safety. All major race raters classify the contest as Solid Democratic, with models projecting roughly a 54-point margin. The November 3 general election features limited polling and an additional independent candidate, leaving little evidence of momentum shifts. A major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican performance would be required to alter the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$50,056End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ilhan Omar holds a commanding lead in Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District race due to the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+32 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. Omar secured the Democratic nomination with over 80 percent in the August 11 primary against several challengers, while Republican nominee John Nagel, a former state trooper, prevailed in a low-turnout primary focused on crime, fraud, and public safety. All major race raters classify the contest as Solid Democratic, with models projecting roughly a 54-point margin. The November 3 general election features limited polling and an additional independent candidate, leaving little evidence of momentum shifts. A major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican performance would be required to alter the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,056End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ilhan Omar holds a commanding lead in Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District race due to the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+32 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. Omar secured the Democratic nomination with over 80 percent in the August 11 primary against several challengers, while Republican nominee John Nagel, a former state trooper, prevailed in a low-turnout primary focused on crime, fraud, and public safety. All major race raters classify the contest as Solid Democratic, with models projecting roughly a 54-point margin. The November 3 general election features limited polling and an additional independent candidate, leaving little evidence of momentum shifts. A major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican performance would be required to alter the current trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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