Minnesota's 5th congressional district, a D+32 stronghold encompassing urban Minneapolis, drives trader consensus toward a commanding Democratic Party hold at 93.5%, reflecting historical blowout margins—incumbent Ilhan Omar won 74% in 2024 amid weak Republican opposition. Omar's dominant fundraising ($5 million raised, $1.5 million cash on hand as of March) dwarfs GOP primary contenders like Dalia al-Aqidi ($33,000 cash), who lost badly before, reinforcing Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. With filing deadline June 2 and primaries August 11, no recent developments have shifted odds. Late-breaking scandals, a weakened Democratic nominee, or extraordinary national midterm dynamics could alter this outlook, though structural barriers remain high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-05 House Election Winner
MN-05 House Election Winner
$35,558 Vol.
$35,558 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
3%
$35,558 Vol.
$35,558 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$15,421 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$20,137 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 5th congressional district, a D+32 stronghold encompassing urban Minneapolis, drives trader consensus toward a commanding Democratic Party hold at 93.5%, reflecting historical blowout margins—incumbent Ilhan Omar won 74% in 2024 amid weak Republican opposition. Omar's dominant fundraising ($5 million raised, $1.5 million cash on hand as of March) dwarfs GOP primary contenders like Dalia al-Aqidi ($33,000 cash), who lost badly before, reinforcing Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. With filing deadline June 2 and primaries August 11, no recent developments have shifted odds. Late-breaking scandals, a weakened Democratic nominee, or extraordinary national midterm dynamics could alter this outlook, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$35,558End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 5th congressional district, a D+32 stronghold encompassing urban Minneapolis, drives trader consensus toward a commanding Democratic Party hold at 93.5%, reflecting historical blowout margins—incumbent Ilhan Omar won 74% in 2024 amid weak Republican opposition. Omar's dominant fundraising ($5 million raised, $1.5 million cash on hand as of March) dwarfs GOP primary contenders like Dalia al-Aqidi ($33,000 cash), who lost badly before, reinforcing Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. With filing deadline June 2 and primaries August 11, no recent developments have shifted odds. Late-breaking scandals, a weakened Democratic nominee, or extraordinary national midterm dynamics could alter this outlook, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,558End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's 5th congressional district, a D+32 stronghold encompassing urban Minneapolis, drives trader consensus toward a commanding Democratic Party hold at 93.5%, reflecting historical blowout margins—incumbent Ilhan Omar won 74% in 2024 amid weak Republican opposition. Omar's dominant fundraising ($5 million raised, $1.5 million cash on hand as of March) dwarfs GOP primary contenders like Dalia al-Aqidi ($33,000 cash), who lost badly before, reinforcing Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. With filing deadline June 2 and primaries August 11, no recent developments have shifted odds. Late-breaking scandals, a weakened Democratic nominee, or extraordinary national midterm dynamics could alter this outlook, though structural barriers remain high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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