Ilhan Omar holds a commanding lead in the MN-05 race due to the district’s consistent Democratic dominance, reflected in prior presidential margins exceeding 60 points and 2024 House results showing a 50-point Democratic edge. As incumbent, Omar secured her party’s nomination with over 80% in the August 2026 primary against multiple challengers and benefits from endorsements by Governor Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, and Minnesota’s U.S. senators. Republican nominee John Nagel, a retired police officer who prevailed in his primary, faces structural headwinds in a Minneapolis-centered district with limited recent polling or competitive history for GOP candidates. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or national political realignment could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though the current evidence points to a wide margin consistent with historical patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-05 House Election Winner
MN-05 House Election Winner
$49,924 Vol.
$49,924 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ilhan Omar (D)
96%
John Nagel (R)
4%
$49,924 Vol.
$49,924 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ilhan Omar (D)
$18,257 Vol.
96%
John Nagel (R)
$31,668 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ilhan Omar holds a commanding lead in the MN-05 race due to the district’s consistent Democratic dominance, reflected in prior presidential margins exceeding 60 points and 2024 House results showing a 50-point Democratic edge. As incumbent, Omar secured her party’s nomination with over 80% in the August 2026 primary against multiple challengers and benefits from endorsements by Governor Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, and Minnesota’s U.S. senators. Republican nominee John Nagel, a retired police officer who prevailed in his primary, faces structural headwinds in a Minneapolis-centered district with limited recent polling or competitive history for GOP candidates. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or national political realignment could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though the current evidence points to a wide margin consistent with historical patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$49,924End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ilhan Omar holds a commanding lead in the MN-05 race due to the district’s consistent Democratic dominance, reflected in prior presidential margins exceeding 60 points and 2024 House results showing a 50-point Democratic edge. As incumbent, Omar secured her party’s nomination with over 80% in the August 2026 primary against multiple challengers and benefits from endorsements by Governor Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, and Minnesota’s U.S. senators. Republican nominee John Nagel, a retired police officer who prevailed in his primary, faces structural headwinds in a Minneapolis-centered district with limited recent polling or competitive history for GOP candidates. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or national political realignment could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though the current evidence points to a wide margin consistent with historical patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$49,924End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ilhan Omar holds a commanding lead in the MN-05 race due to the district’s consistent Democratic dominance, reflected in prior presidential margins exceeding 60 points and 2024 House results showing a 50-point Democratic edge. As incumbent, Omar secured her party’s nomination with over 80% in the August 2026 primary against multiple challengers and benefits from endorsements by Governor Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, and Minnesota’s U.S. senators. Republican nominee John Nagel, a retired police officer who prevailed in his primary, faces structural headwinds in a Minneapolis-centered district with limited recent polling or competitive history for GOP candidates. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or national political realignment could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though the current evidence points to a wide margin consistent with historical patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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