Ilhan Omar's commanding position in the MN-05 race stems from the district's entrenched Democratic lean, reflected in its D+32 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. As incumbent, she secured 80.7% in the August 2026 Democratic primary against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee John Nagel, a retired state trooper, prevailed in a fragmented GOP contest. Fundraising and forecasting models, including those projecting a 50-plus point margin, reinforce trader consensus around her high probability. An independent candidate and Nagel's emphasis on state fraud issues have not shifted fundamentals. Late developments such as major scandals, health incidents, or an unexpected national partisan wave remain the primary factors that could realistically narrow the gap before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-05 House Election Winner
MN-05 House Election Winner
$50,056 Vol.
$50,056 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ilhan Omar (D)
95%
John Nagel (R)
4%
$50,056 Vol.
$50,056 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ilhan Omar (D)
$18,383 Vol.
95%
John Nagel (R)
$31,673 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ilhan Omar's commanding position in the MN-05 race stems from the district's entrenched Democratic lean, reflected in its D+32 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. As incumbent, she secured 80.7% in the August 2026 Democratic primary against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee John Nagel, a retired state trooper, prevailed in a fragmented GOP contest. Fundraising and forecasting models, including those projecting a 50-plus point margin, reinforce trader consensus around her high probability. An independent candidate and Nagel's emphasis on state fraud issues have not shifted fundamentals. Late developments such as major scandals, health incidents, or an unexpected national partisan wave remain the primary factors that could realistically narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$50,056End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ilhan Omar's commanding position in the MN-05 race stems from the district's entrenched Democratic lean, reflected in its D+32 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. As incumbent, she secured 80.7% in the August 2026 Democratic primary against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee John Nagel, a retired state trooper, prevailed in a fragmented GOP contest. Fundraising and forecasting models, including those projecting a 50-plus point margin, reinforce trader consensus around her high probability. An independent candidate and Nagel's emphasis on state fraud issues have not shifted fundamentals. Late developments such as major scandals, health incidents, or an unexpected national partisan wave remain the primary factors that could realistically narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,056End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Ilhan Omar's commanding position in the MN-05 race stems from the district's entrenched Democratic lean, reflected in its D+32 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. As incumbent, she secured 80.7% in the August 2026 Democratic primary against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee John Nagel, a retired state trooper, prevailed in a fragmented GOP contest. Fundraising and forecasting models, including those projecting a 50-plus point margin, reinforce trader consensus around her high probability. An independent candidate and Nagel's emphasis on state fraud issues have not shifted fundamentals. Late developments such as major scandals, health incidents, or an unexpected national partisan wave remain the primary factors that could realistically narrow the gap before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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