Trader consensus reflects a 79.5% implied probability for no magnitude 9.0+ megaquake by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—fewer than five globally in the past century—and the absence of detectable precursors in USGS seismic monitoring. As of early April 2026, the year's largest quake was a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, with no M8+ events amid typical global activity levels. High-risk subduction zones like Cascadia (moderate 50-year odds) and Japan's Nankai Trough (60-90% in 30 years) show no anomalous strain buildup, foreshocks, or accelerated slip rates per recent USGS and agency reports. Short-term earthquake forecasting remains scientifically unreliable, underscoring market skepticism; traders await real-time USGS data through quarterly close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$38,543 Vol.
$38,543 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$38,543 Vol.
$38,543 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus reflects a 79.5% implied probability for no magnitude 9.0+ megaquake by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—fewer than five globally in the past century—and the absence of detectable precursors in USGS seismic monitoring. As of early April 2026, the year's largest quake was a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, with no M8+ events amid typical global activity levels. High-risk subduction zones like Cascadia (moderate 50-year odds) and Japan's Nankai Trough (60-90% in 30 years) show no anomalous strain buildup, foreshocks, or accelerated slip rates per recent USGS and agency reports. Short-term earthquake forecasting remains scientifically unreliable, underscoring market skepticism; traders await real-time USGS data through quarterly close.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$38,543End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus reflects a 79.5% implied probability for no magnitude 9.0+ megaquake by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—fewer than five globally in the past century—and the absence of detectable precursors in USGS seismic monitoring. As of early April 2026, the year's largest quake was a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, with no M8+ events amid typical global activity levels. High-risk subduction zones like Cascadia (moderate 50-year odds) and Japan's Nankai Trough (60-90% in 30 years) show no anomalous strain buildup, foreshocks, or accelerated slip rates per recent USGS and agency reports. Short-term earthquake forecasting remains scientifically unreliable, underscoring market skepticism; traders await real-time USGS data through quarterly close.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$38,543End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 79.5% implied probability for no magnitude 9.0+ megaquake by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—fewer than five globally in the past century—and the absence of detectable precursors in USGS seismic monitoring. As of early April 2026, the year's largest quake was a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, with no M8+ events amid typical global activity levels. High-risk subduction zones like Cascadia (moderate 50-year odds) and Japan's Nankai Trough (60-90% in 30 years) show no anomalous strain buildup, foreshocks, or accelerated slip rates per recent USGS and agency reports. Short-term earthquake forecasting remains scientifically unreliable, underscoring market skepticism; traders await real-time USGS data through quarterly close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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