Traders' 78.5% implied probability on "No" for a megaquake (magnitude 9.0+) by June 30 reflects the extreme rarity of such events, occurring globally roughly once every 20–50 years per USGS historical records, with no anomalous precursors in current seismic data. Recent USGS monitoring shows steady but unremarkable activity on major subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan Trench, and Sumatra-Andaman, including a M7.4 off the Philippines on June 4 but far below megaquake thresholds and without aftershocks signaling escalation. Strain accumulation models indicate no rapid buildup for M9+ ruptures, and global earthquake catalogs confirm no M8+ events in the past 30 days. Upcoming daily USGS updates and tectonic monitoring will track any shifts, though baseline odds favor quiescence through resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
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Jun 30, 2026
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Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders' 78.5% implied probability on "No" for a megaquake (magnitude 9.0+) by June 30 reflects the extreme rarity of such events, occurring globally roughly once every 20–50 years per USGS historical records, with no anomalous precursors in current seismic data. Recent USGS monitoring shows steady but unremarkable activity on major subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan Trench, and Sumatra-Andaman, including a M7.4 off the Philippines on June 4 but far below megaquake thresholds and without aftershocks signaling escalation. Strain accumulation models indicate no rapid buildup for M9+ ruptures, and global earthquake catalogs confirm no M8+ events in the past 30 days. Upcoming daily USGS updates and tectonic monitoring will track any shifts, though baseline odds favor quiescence through resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders' 78.5% implied probability on "No" for a megaquake (magnitude 9.0+) by June 30 reflects the extreme rarity of such events, occurring globally roughly once every 20–50 years per USGS historical records, with no anomalous precursors in current seismic data. Recent USGS monitoring shows steady but unremarkable activity on major subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan Trench, and Sumatra-Andaman, including a M7.4 off the Philippines on June 4 but far below megaquake thresholds and without aftershocks signaling escalation. Strain accumulation models indicate no rapid buildup for M9+ ruptures, and global earthquake catalogs confirm no M8+ events in the past 30 days. Upcoming daily USGS updates and tectonic monitoring will track any shifts, though baseline odds favor quiescence through resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$0End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' 78.5% implied probability on "No" for a megaquake (magnitude 9.0+) by June 30 reflects the extreme rarity of such events, occurring globally roughly once every 20–50 years per USGS historical records, with no anomalous precursors in current seismic data. Recent USGS monitoring shows steady but unremarkable activity on major subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan Trench, and Sumatra-Andaman, including a M7.4 off the Philippines on June 4 but far below megaquake thresholds and without aftershocks signaling escalation. Strain accumulation models indicate no rapid buildup for M9+ ruptures, and global earthquake catalogs confirm no M8+ events in the past 30 days. Upcoming daily USGS updates and tectonic monitoring will track any shifts, though baseline odds favor quiescence through resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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