Current global seismic monitoring by the U.S. Geological Survey shows typical activity levels with no magnitude 8.0 or greater events recorded in 2026 and only moderate recent quakes up to 6.9. Megaquakes of this scale occur roughly once or twice per year worldwide on average, making one before the June 30 resolution date statistically unlikely absent unusual precursors such as widespread foreshock sequences or major stress changes along subduction zones. Trader consensus at 87.5% for “No” reflects this baseline rate plus the absence of elevated signals in real-time USGS data through late May. While short-term aftershock risks can briefly rise following large events, no such conditions currently exist, and earthquake timing remains inherently unpredictable beyond long-term probabilistic models.