Name: Kanye "Carnival" #1 Billboard week of Mar 23?
Start: 2024-03-11T16:43:43.121Z
End: 2024-03-19T00:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

funkit_withdraw

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

Show/hide language selector in navigation

language_selector

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kanye West’s ‘Carnival’ is #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of March 23, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may resolve as soon as data for the week of March 23 is released (Which typically occurs on the Tuesday, i.e. March 19). 

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/).



Kanye "Carnival" #1 Billboard week of Mar 23?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart.

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.

Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.

Will Mariah Carey have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number 1 artist on the Billboard 2026 Year-End Top Artists chart.

If Billboard does not publish a 2026 Year-End Top Artists chart by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Billboard Year-End 2026 Top Artists Chart, once it becomes available.

Will Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any weekly bar in the Kaito “Mindshare over time (L12M)” chart reaches a new all-time high at any point between November 19 and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. If no new all-time high occurs, the market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the creator’s page on Kaito. The weekly bar chart can be viewed by clicking the creator’s name at: https://yaps.kaito.ai/ct-leaderboard

A weekly bar counts as long as its date range includes the target date. A weekly bar is considered finalized once a bar for the following week is published.

Only the weekly values shown in the L12M chart are used for resolution.

If the Kaito page is temporarily unavailable at resolution time, the market will remain open until it returns. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve to “No.”

Ansem mindshare all time high by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Kardashian receives a passing score on the California Bar Exam by May 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of all California State Bar Exams within this market's timeframe are not known by the specified end date, this market may remain open until May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, after which, if results remain unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the California State Bar Association, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. 

Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release any monthly report on the Consumer Price Index by 11:59PM ET on the scheduled release date between December 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If an announcement is made by the White House or the BLS that the monthly CPI release will be delayed or cancelled altogether, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the BLS or a consensus of credible reporting. 

BLS delays another CPI release before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed song is played first by any performer during the Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify as "played" a performer must sing at least some of the lyrics of a specified song during this event.

If this event is cancelled or otherwise delayed beyond March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the Super Bowl LX halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Clinton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and January 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bill Clinton in jail by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) is not the second or first largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at any point between January 1, and December 31, 2026 ET, according to CoinGecko. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be CoinGecko. If CoinGecko becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be chosen. If there is ambiguity, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Ethereum flipped in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of views any YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first day after being posted is greater than or equal to 50 million by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.


50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? (January 18)

In November, a song reported to be the product of an AI-generated artist reached the top of the Billboard's Country Digital Song Sales chart. (see: https://www.barrons.com/news/ai-country-song-rollicks-to-the-top-of-us-sales-chart-7fe99e8a)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song widely reported to be entirely AI-generated reaches number 1 on any Billboard chart between November 13, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A song will be considered fully AI-generated if all vocals, musical composition, and production elements are created primarily by AI. Human actions such as prompting, mixing, and editing will not disqualify a song provided all audio content originates from AI.

Songs reported to have used AI-generated lyrics but not AI-generated voices, AI-assisted human vocals or instruments, or remixes, mash-ups, or covers using human-performed components will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?

On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a guest on any "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast episode between December 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a consensus of credible reporting confirms Elon Musk recorded an episode with Rogan before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when/if it is released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify and/or Youtube, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the Up Only podcast is publicly released to the general public by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Released previews of the interview won't count - the full interview must be released by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market will be footage of the interview and/or a consensus of credible reporting.


Up Only podcast released by February 28, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Blackpink (블랙핑크, BLɅϽKPIИK) officially releases a new album by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

The resolution source will be any official Blackpink streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed song is played by any performer during the Super Bowl LX halftime show currently scheduled for February 8, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify as "played" a performer must sing at least some of the lyrics of a specified song during this event.

If this event is cancelled or otherwise delayed beyond March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the Super Bowl LIX halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will DtMF be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?

The seedings and bracket for the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament are scheduled to be selected on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team earns a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament is canceled, or the number 1 seeds are not definitively known by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA (ncaa.com).

Will Michigan be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


French election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.3% by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between January 1 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.

The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

Will Nettspend release an album by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Cardi B and Stefon Diggs are engaged to be married by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it is announced that Cardi B and Stefon Diggs have married, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.  

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cardi B, Stefon Diggs, or their representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Cardi B and Stefon Diggs get engaged in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team makes the 2025-26 NBA Playoffs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note: reaching the Play-In Tournament will not qualify as making the Playoffs. To make the NBA Playoffs, a team must earn one of the 16 spots in the postseason bracket.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to make the Playoffs based on the rules of the NBA (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from reaching the Play-In), this market will resolve immediately to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA.

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder make the NBA Playoffs?

Justin Bieber is scheduled to perform as the main act at Coachella 2026 on April 11 and April 18, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Bieber officially announces his withdrawal from, or it is confirmed that he will not be performing at the 2026 Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival, by April 11, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Justin Bieber or Coachella (see: https://www.coachella.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Justin Bieber drop out as a Coachella 2026 Headliner?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift's marriage takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resole to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Kanye "Carnival" #1 Billboard week of Mar 23?

Market Context

Kanye "Carnival" #1 Billboard week of Mar 23?

Rules

Kanye "Carnival" #1 Billboard week of Mar 23?

Market Context

Kanye "Carnival" #1 Billboard week of Mar 23?

About

Related