Name: How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Start: 2023-05-24T18:01:11.713Z
End: 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z

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This is a market on whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will name 21 or more storms during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if NOAA names 21 or more storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If 21 or more storms are named during the Atlantic hurricane season, the market will resolve to "Yes" immediately. Note: storms that form before the designated period but which are active during it are included in NOAA’s count. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.


This market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not occurred before then.

This is a market on whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will name 19 or more storms during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if NOAA names 19 or more storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 

If 19 or more storms are named during the Atlantic hurricane season, the market will resolve to "Yes" immediately. Note: storms that form before the designated period but which are active during it are included in NOAA’s count. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

This market may only resolve to "No" after December 1, 2023, 12:00:00 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not occurred before then.

How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.

Will a hurricane form by May 31?

This market will resolve according to the number of named typhoons (i.e., storms assigned an official name) that occur in the Northwest Pacific basin between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59PM UTC, according to the official list published on the Digital Typhoon website by Japan’s National Institute of Informatics. (see: https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/year/wnp/2025.html.en)

A “named typhoon” refers to any system officially assigned a name by the meteorological agencies responsible for the Western North Pacific basin. Only storms appearing on the 2025 list on the Digital Typhoon website will count.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by Nov 30, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until January 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.

Will 27 named typhoons occur in the Northwest Pacific in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the listed division during the 2025-26 NHL regular season.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win its division (e.g., mathematical elimination before season end), the relevant market will resolve immediately to “No.”

If the 2025-26 NHL season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division?

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for December 2025 versus the data points available for all other Decembers on record.

Note: If December 2025 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Dec" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for December 2025 is provided by NASA by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Will December 2025 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between May 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2026, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

5kt meteor strike in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows the second greatest increase of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly which is the second greatest of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between May 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2026, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.


Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly greater than that of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most sacks in the 2025-2026 NFL regular season. 

If two or more players are tied for the most sacks, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.

Will Myles Garrett lead the NFL in sacks this season?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the New England Patriots win the AFC East in the 2025-2026 NFL Season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the New England Patriots team to win the AFC East based on the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from finishing first in the division), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

Will the New England Patriots win the AFC East?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team finishes with the best regular season record in the NFL for the 2025-26 Season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If two or more teams finish with the same best record, the market will resolve in favor of the team that scored the most total points during the 2025–26 NFL regular season. If there is still a tie, the market will resolve to the team listed first alphabetically (e.g., Bills would resolve to "Yes" and Ravens would resolve to "No".)

If the 2025–26 NFL regular season is canceled or not completed by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". 

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.

Will the New England Patriots finish with the best record in the NFL?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the listed division for the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference Finals. 

If it becomes impossible for this team to win based on the rules of the NBA this market will resolve to “No”. 

If multiple teams share the same record, official NBA tie breaking rules will be used to determine the outcome.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is the top scoring quarterback during the 2025-26 NFL regular season. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will be based on ESPN's FFL Points Per Reception (PPR) scoring, and refers to the totals for the entirety of the 2025-26 NFL regular season. 

In case of a tie for the most points scored, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose last name comes first alphabetically. 

If the 2025-26 NFL regular season is cancelled or not completed by April 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". 

The resolution source for this market will be ESPN Fantasy https://fantasy.espn.com/football/leaders. 

Will Josh Allen be the Top Fantasy Quarterback of the 2025-26 NFL Regular Season?

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most interceptions in the 2025-2026 NFL regular season. 

If two or more players are tied for the most interceptions, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.

Will Nahshon Wright lead the NFL in interceptions this season?

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most passing yards in the 2025-2026 NFL regular season. 

If two or more players are tied for the most passing yards, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.

Will Dak Prescott lead the NFL in passing yards this season?

This market will resolve according to the team that finishes with the best regular season record in the 2025-2026 NFL American Football Conference (AFC).

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for the listed team to finish the 2025- 2026 NFL regular season with the best regular season record in the AFC.

If multiple teams are tied for the best record in the AFC in the 2025-2026 NFL regular season, this market will resolve in favor of the team that receives the number 1 seed in the AFC for the 2026 NFL Playoffs. A list of the NFL’s Tiebreak Procedures can be found here: https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NFL.

Will the New England Patriots be the number 1 seed in the AFC?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX has between 160 (inclusive) and 179 (inclusive) launches in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the FAA, specifically the number shown next to SpaceX when 2025 is selected here https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data.

Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the Eastern Conference during the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the Eastern Conference (e.g., elimination from the playoffs), the relevant market will resolve immediately to “No.”

If the 2025-26 NHL season is permanently canceled or the playoffs have not been completed by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Eastern Conference?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jaxon Smith-Njigba records more than 1,964 receiving yards during the 2025-2026 NFL regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The primary source of resolution for this market will be information from the NFL (https://www.nfl.com).

Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba break NFL receiving yards record?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the NFC South in the 2025-2026 NFL Season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers team to win the NFC South based on the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from finishing first in the division), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the NFC South?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed city records a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches for any day between December 1 and December 31, 2025, as recorded by the National Weather Service (NWS). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches is recorded by the National Weather Service for the listed city, this market will resolve immediately to “Yes”. If no such snowfall has been recorded, this market may not resolve until the NWS Daily Climate Report for the listed city for December 31, 2025 has been published.

The relevant National Weather Service locations for this market will be Central Park NY (New York City), Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (Dallas), Miami, FL (Miami), Seattle-Tacoma, WA (Seattle), Washington-National (Washington D.C.), Phoenix, AZ (Phoenix), Philadelphia, PA (Philadelphia), Atlanta, GA (Atlanta), Boston (Logan Airport), MA (Boston), and Pittsburgh, PA (Pittsburgh).

The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service, specifically the figure for  "SNOWFALL (IN)" when "Daily Climate Report (CLI)"  is selected under "Observed Weather" after navigating to the relevant city & location from https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate.

Will it Snow in Seattle this December?

This market will resolve according to the team that finishes with the best regular season record in the 2025–2026 NFL National Football Conference (NFC).

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for the listed team to finish the 2025-2026 NFL regular season with the best regular season record in the NFC.

If multiple teams are tied for the best record in the NFC in the 2025-2026 NFL regular season, this market will resolve in favor of the team that receives the number 1 seed in the NFC for the 2026 NFL Playoffs. A list of the NFL’s Tiebreak Procedures can be found here: https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NFL.

Will the Seattle Seahawks be the number 1 seed in the NFC?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Buffalo Bills win the 2025-26 AFC Championship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the AFC Championship based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

19+
$91,224 Vol.
Yes

21+
$38,046 Vol.
No

Market Context

How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Rules

How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Market Context

How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

About

Related

How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

19+$91,224 Vol.Yescircle check

21+$38,046 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Rules

How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Market Context

How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

About

Related

19+
$91,224 Vol.
Yes

21+
$38,046 Vol.
No