Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 66% probability of exactly two magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5, driven by USGS-confirmed events: a 7.3 off Vanuatu on March 30 and a 7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1, with no additional M6.5+ quakes recorded through April 3. This aligns with historical USGS baselines of roughly 13 such events monthly—or about three weekly—positioning two as the modal outcome given five days elapsed and two remaining, where seismic activity follows a near-Poisson distribution with low clustering risk absent active fault swarms. Recent quietude post a busier late-March period (eight M6+ from March 20-26) reinforces trader caution on exceeding two, though USGS real-time monitoring could detect aftershocks or new events before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?
2 66%
3 21.0%
4 6.3%
0 <1%
$125,532 Vol.
$125,532 Vol.
Apr 5, 2026
0
1%
1
<1%
2
66%
3
21%
4
7%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
2 66%
3 21.0%
4 6.3%
0 <1%
$125,532 Vol.
$125,532 Vol.
Apr 5, 2026
0
$33,664 Vol.
1%
1
$43,922 Vol.
<1%
2
$16,672 Vol.
66%
3
$6,824 Vol.
21%
4
$4,830 Vol.
7%
5
$5,659 Vol.
<1%
>5
$13,961 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 66% probability of exactly two magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5, driven by USGS-confirmed events: a 7.3 off Vanuatu on March 30 and a 7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1, with no additional M6.5+ quakes recorded through April 3. This aligns with historical USGS baselines of roughly 13 such events monthly—or about three weekly—positioning two as the modal outcome given five days elapsed and two remaining, where seismic activity follows a near-Poisson distribution with low clustering risk absent active fault swarms. Recent quietude post a busier late-March period (eight M6+ from March 20-26) reinforces trader caution on exceeding two, though USGS real-time monitoring could detect aftershocks or new events before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volume
$125,532End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 66% probability of exactly two magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5, driven by USGS-confirmed events: a 7.3 off Vanuatu on March 30 and a 7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1, with no additional M6.5+ quakes recorded through April 3. This aligns with historical USGS baselines of roughly 13 such events monthly—or about three weekly—positioning two as the modal outcome given five days elapsed and two remaining, where seismic activity follows a near-Poisson distribution with low clustering risk absent active fault swarms. Recent quietude post a busier late-March period (eight M6+ from March 20-26) reinforces trader caution on exceeding two, though USGS real-time monitoring could detect aftershocks or new events before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$125,532End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 66% probability of exactly two magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5, driven by USGS-confirmed events: a 7.3 off Vanuatu on March 30 and a 7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1, with no additional M6.5+ quakes recorded through April 3. This aligns with historical USGS baselines of roughly 13 such events monthly—or about three weekly—positioning two as the modal outcome given five days elapsed and two remaining, where seismic activity follows a near-Poisson distribution with low clustering risk absent active fault swarms. Recent quietude post a busier late-March period (eight M6+ from March 20-26) reinforces trader caution on exceeding two, though USGS real-time monitoring could detect aftershocks or new events before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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