Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a roughly 45.5% chance of zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 6–12, reflecting USGS historical baselines of about 40–50 such events annually—or 0.8 per week—following a Poisson distribution with mean around 0.7 for the period. This positions 1 event (30.5%) as the next likely outcome amid inherent seismic randomness along global fault lines, with no reliable short-term forecasting possible. Recent USGS data shows five M6.5+ quakes in the past 30 days (four in late March near Japan, Tonga, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, and South Shetland Islands; one M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1), above average but tapering to just one last week, prompting mean reversion expectations. Continuous USGS monitoring will determine resolution via its global seismic catalog.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 6 - 12?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 6 - 12?
0 46%
1 31%
2 15%
3 5%
NEW
$16,199 Vol.
NEW
$16,199 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
0
46%
1
31%
2
15%
3
5%
4
2%
5
1%
>5
1%
0 46%
1 31%
2 15%
3 5%
NEW
$16,199 Vol.
NEW
$16,199 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
0
$4,446 Vol.
46%
1
$1,547 Vol.
31%
2
$2,266 Vol.
15%
3
$1,530 Vol.
5%
4
$1,504 Vol.
2%
5
$2,541 Vol.
1%
>5
$2,364 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a roughly 45.5% chance of zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 6–12, reflecting USGS historical baselines of about 40–50 such events annually—or 0.8 per week—following a Poisson distribution with mean around 0.7 for the period. This positions 1 event (30.5%) as the next likely outcome amid inherent seismic randomness along global fault lines, with no reliable short-term forecasting possible. Recent USGS data shows five M6.5+ quakes in the past 30 days (four in late March near Japan, Tonga, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, and South Shetland Islands; one M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1), above average but tapering to just one last week, prompting mean reversion expectations. Continuous USGS monitoring will determine resolution via its global seismic catalog.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
Volume
$16,199End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a roughly 45.5% chance of zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 6–12, reflecting USGS historical baselines of about 40–50 such events annually—or 0.8 per week—following a Poisson distribution with mean around 0.7 for the period. This positions 1 event (30.5%) as the next likely outcome amid inherent seismic randomness along global fault lines, with no reliable short-term forecasting possible. Recent USGS data shows five M6.5+ quakes in the past 30 days (four in late March near Japan, Tonga, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, and South Shetland Islands; one M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1), above average but tapering to just one last week, prompting mean reversion expectations. Continuous USGS monitoring will determine resolution via its global seismic catalog.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$16,199End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a roughly 45.5% chance of zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 6–12, reflecting USGS historical baselines of about 40–50 such events annually—or 0.8 per week—following a Poisson distribution with mean around 0.7 for the period. This positions 1 event (30.5%) as the next likely outcome amid inherent seismic randomness along global fault lines, with no reliable short-term forecasting possible. Recent USGS data shows five M6.5+ quakes in the past 30 days (four in late March near Japan, Tonga, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, and South Shetland Islands; one M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1), above average but tapering to just one last week, prompting mean reversion expectations. Continuous USGS monitoring will determine resolution via its global seismic catalog.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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