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Politics·Gov Shutdown

How long will the DHS shutdown last?

Market icon
Politics·Gov Shutdown

How long will the DHS shutdown last?

72 days

Mar 14

Mar 14

$1,102,314 Vol.

Mar 14, 2026
Polymarket

$1,102,314 Vol.

Polymarket

44+ days

$13,569 Vol.

93%

48+ days

$15,256 Vol.

92%

52+ days

$11,425 Vol.

88%

60+ days

$222,482 Vol.

81%

70+ days

$5,450 Vol.

59%

80+ days

$5,599 Vol.

24%

90+ days

$6,920 Vol.

19%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.The partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown, now exceeding 40 days since mid-February funding lapse, stems from partisan congressional impasse over appropriations, particularly immigration enforcement funding for ICE and CBP amid debates on border security. Yesterday, the House passed its third funding bill in two months for full 60-day DHS operations including TSA and Coast Guard, but Senate Democrats deemed it dead on arrival after rejecting a prior bipartisan measure that excluded deportations. Strains on TSA staffing have caused airport delays and attrition, prompting a presidential memorandum to pay Transportation Security Officers despite furloughs. With Congress in recess, traders weigh prolonged deadlock against post-recess negotiations or continuing resolutions as key catalysts for resolution.

The partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown, now exceeding 40 days since mid-February funding lapse, stems from partisan congressional impasse over appropriations, particularly immigration enforcement funding for ICE and CBP amid debates on border security. Yesterday, the House passed its third funding bill in two months for full 60-day DHS operations including TSA and Coast Guard, but Senate Democrats deemed it dead on arrival after rejecting a prior bipartisan measure that excluded deportations. Strains on TSA staffing have caused airport delays and attrition, prompting a presidential memorandum to pay Transportation Security Officers despite furloughs. With Congress in recess, traders weigh prolonged deadlock against post-recess negotiations or continuing resolutions as key catalysts for resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.The partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown, now exceeding 40 days since mid-February funding lapse, stems from partisan congressional impasse over appropriations, particularly immigration enforcement funding for ICE and CBP amid debates on border security. Yesterday, the House passed its third funding bill in two months for full 60-day DHS operations including TSA and Coast Guard, but Senate Democrats deemed it dead on arrival after rejecting a prior bipartisan measure that excluded deportations. Strains on TSA staffing have caused airport delays and attrition, prompting a presidential memorandum to pay Transportation Security Officers despite furloughs. With Congress in recess, traders weigh prolonged deadlock against post-recess negotiations or continuing resolutions as key catalysts for resolution.

The partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown, now exceeding 40 days since mid-February funding lapse, stems from partisan congressional impasse over appropriations, particularly immigration enforcement funding for ICE and CBP amid debates on border security. Yesterday, the House passed its third funding bill in two months for full 60-day DHS operations including TSA and Coast Guard, but Senate Democrats deemed it dead on arrival after rejecting a prior bipartisan measure that excluded deportations. Strains on TSA staffing have caused airport delays and attrition, prompting a presidential memorandum to pay Transportation Security Officers despite furloughs. With Congress in recess, traders weigh prolonged deadlock against post-recess negotiations or continuing resolutions as key catalysts for resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How long will the DHS shutdown last?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3+ days" at 100%, followed by "5+ days" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How long will the DHS shutdown last?" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 15, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How long will the DHS shutdown last?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How long will the DHS shutdown last?" is "3+ days" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5+ days" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How long will the DHS shutdown last?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.