Market icon
Economy·Inflation

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Market icon
Economy·Inflation

How high will inflation get in 2026?

$326,209 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$326,209 Vol.

Polymarket

Above 3%

$211,606 Vol.

98%

Above 3.5%

$30,162 Vol.

80%

Above 4%

$51,415 Vol.

45%

Above 5%

$9,834 Vol.

26%

Above 6%

$6,250 Vol.

13%

Above 8%

$12,164 Vol.

8%

Above 10%

$4,779 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus reflects caution on 2026 peak inflation amid sticky core pressures and geopolitical risks, with February CPI holding steady at 2.4% year-over-year—matching January—while core PCE reached 3.1% in January, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge. The FOMC's March 18 projections raised median PCE inflation for the year to 2.7% from 2.5%, citing robust 2.4% GDP growth forecasts and energy shocks, including a 33% gasoline price surge through mid-March tied to tensions like the Iran conflict. Nowcasts signal potential March headline acceleration to 0.76% month-over-month. Traders eye the April 10 CPI release and May FOMC for directional cues, as elevated Treasury yields and wage trends sustain reacceleration risks above recent lows.

Trader consensus reflects caution on 2026 peak inflation amid sticky core pressures and geopolitical risks, with February CPI holding steady at 2.4% year-over-year—matching January—while core PCE reached 3.1% in January, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge. The FOMC's March 18 projections raised median PCE inflation for the year to 2.7% from 2.5%, citing robust 2.4% GDP growth forecasts and energy shocks, including a 33% gasoline price surge through mid-March tied to tensions like the Iran conflict. Nowcasts signal potential March headline acceleration to 0.76% month-over-month. Traders eye the April 10 CPI release and May FOMC for directional cues, as elevated Treasury yields and wage trends sustain reacceleration risks above recent lows.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus reflects caution on 2026 peak inflation amid sticky core pressures and geopolitical risks, with February CPI holding steady at 2.4% year-over-year—matching January—while core PCE reached 3.1% in January, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge. The FOMC's March 18 projections raised median PCE inflation for the year to 2.7% from 2.5%, citing robust 2.4% GDP growth forecasts and energy shocks, including a 33% gasoline price surge through mid-March tied to tensions like the Iran conflict. Nowcasts signal potential March headline acceleration to 0.76% month-over-month. Traders eye the April 10 CPI release and May FOMC for directional cues, as elevated Treasury yields and wage trends sustain reacceleration risks above recent lows.

Trader consensus reflects caution on 2026 peak inflation amid sticky core pressures and geopolitical risks, with February CPI holding steady at 2.4% year-over-year—matching January—while core PCE reached 3.1% in January, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge. The FOMC's March 18 projections raised median PCE inflation for the year to 2.7% from 2.5%, citing robust 2.4% GDP growth forecasts and energy shocks, including a 33% gasoline price surge through mid-March tied to tensions like the Iran conflict. Nowcasts signal potential March headline acceleration to 0.76% month-over-month. Traders eye the April 10 CPI release and May FOMC for directional cues, as elevated Treasury yields and wage trends sustain reacceleration risks above recent lows.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How high will inflation get in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Above 3%" at 98%, followed by "Above 3.5%" at 80%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How high will inflation get in 2026?" has generated $326.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How high will inflation get in 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How high will inflation get in 2026?" is "Above 3%" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Above 3.5%" at 80%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How high will inflation get in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.