Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on April 4 project a daytime high near 18°C under cloudy skies transitioning to occasional showers with 50% precipitation probability, closely aligning with trader sentiment favoring 17°C (35%) and 18°C (29.5%) outcomes. The tight race reflects uncertainty in cloud cover and rain timing: early-morning overcast conditions, as shown in ensemble models like GFS and timeanddate projections (high ~18°C with 89% shower risk), could limit solar insolation and cap peaks at 17°C, while delayed showers amid mild southerly winds—prevalent in spring migratory patterns—might allow 18–19°C. Early April climatology averages 18°C highs, but frontal passages introduce variability; watch overnight model updates for shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?
17°C 32%
18°C 32%
19°C 17.5%
16°C 15%
$11,064 Vol.
$11,064 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
4%
16°C
15%
17°C
32%
18°C
30%
19°C
18%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
3%
17°C 32%
18°C 32%
19°C 17.5%
16°C 15%
$11,064 Vol.
$11,064 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
11°C or below
$1,633 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,082 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$735 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$815 Vol.
1%
15°C
$908 Vol.
4%
16°C
$947 Vol.
15%
17°C
$871 Vol.
32%
18°C
$877 Vol.
30%
19°C
$937 Vol.
18%
20°C
$1,150 Vol.
8%
21°C or higher
$1,112 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on April 4 project a daytime high near 18°C under cloudy skies transitioning to occasional showers with 50% precipitation probability, closely aligning with trader sentiment favoring 17°C (35%) and 18°C (29.5%) outcomes. The tight race reflects uncertainty in cloud cover and rain timing: early-morning overcast conditions, as shown in ensemble models like GFS and timeanddate projections (high ~18°C with 89% shower risk), could limit solar insolation and cap peaks at 17°C, while delayed showers amid mild southerly winds—prevalent in spring migratory patterns—might allow 18–19°C. Early April climatology averages 18°C highs, but frontal passages introduce variability; watch overnight model updates for shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$11,064End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on April 4 project a daytime high near 18°C under cloudy skies transitioning to occasional showers with 50% precipitation probability, closely aligning with trader sentiment favoring 17°C (35%) and 18°C (29.5%) outcomes. The tight race reflects uncertainty in cloud cover and rain timing: early-morning overcast conditions, as shown in ensemble models like GFS and timeanddate projections (high ~18°C with 89% shower risk), could limit solar insolation and cap peaks at 17°C, while delayed showers amid mild southerly winds—prevalent in spring migratory patterns—might allow 18–19°C. Early April climatology averages 18°C highs, but frontal passages introduce variability; watch overnight model updates for shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,064End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on April 4 project a daytime high near 18°C under cloudy skies transitioning to occasional showers with 50% precipitation probability, closely aligning with trader sentiment favoring 17°C (35%) and 18°C (29.5%) outcomes. The tight race reflects uncertainty in cloud cover and rain timing: early-morning overcast conditions, as shown in ensemble models like GFS and timeanddate projections (high ~18°C with 89% shower risk), could limit solar insolation and cap peaks at 17°C, while delayed showers amid mild southerly winds—prevalent in spring migratory patterns—might allow 18–19°C. Early April climatology averages 18°C highs, but frontal passages introduce variability; watch overnight model updates for shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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