Latest Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts and global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show Seoul's March 24 high temperature tightly clustered around 14°C, driving the 32% implied probability for that outcome and keeping 15°C or higher (29%) and 13°C (23%) in close contention. A persistent high-pressure ridge over East Asia is advecting mild continental air, supporting above-normal warmth—Seoul's March 24 historical average is 13°C—but uncertainty arises from model spreads in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which could cap peaks at 13°C under partial overcast or push to 15°C+ with sustained insolation. Traders eye today's 18Z model updates for resolution-defining clarity amid this narrow 2-3°C spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on March 24?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 24?
15°C or higher 34%
14°C 28%
13°C 22%
12°C 10%
$14,138 Vol.
$14,138 Vol.
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
9%
12°C
10%
13°C
22%
14°C
28%
15°C or higher
34%
15°C or higher 34%
14°C 28%
13°C 22%
12°C 10%
$14,138 Vol.
$14,138 Vol.
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
9%
12°C
10%
13°C
22%
14°C
28%
15°C or higher
34%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts and global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show Seoul's March 24 high temperature tightly clustered around 14°C, driving the 32% implied probability for that outcome and keeping 15°C or higher (29%) and 13°C (23%) in close contention. A persistent high-pressure ridge over East Asia is advecting mild continental air, supporting above-normal warmth—Seoul's March 24 historical average is 13°C—but uncertainty arises from model spreads in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which could cap peaks at 13°C under partial overcast or push to 15°C+ with sustained insolation. Traders eye today's 18Z model updates for resolution-defining clarity amid this narrow 2-3°C spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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