Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly forecasts project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 2 at 17°C around 3 PM local time under cloudy conditions with intermittent showers and high humidity (75-93%), yet trader consensus prices 16°C at 82.5% implied probability, reflecting skepticism from recent steady rainfall over the past 48 hours that has saturated soils, cooled surface layers, and limited daytime solar heating. Current observations as of mid-afternoon show 14.4°C, aligning with gradual warming from morning lows near 10°C amid light winds (5-24 km/h). April climatology supports highs near 16°C on average, with model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS showing similar spreads; final resolution hinges on late-afternoon measurements from official stations before evening cooldown.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 2?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 2?
16°C 77.0%
17°C 19.6%
18°C 3.9%
19°C or higher <1%
$92,025 Vol.
$92,025 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
53%
17°C
20%
18°C
4%
19°C or higher
1%
16°C 77.0%
17°C 19.6%
18°C 3.9%
19°C or higher <1%
$92,025 Vol.
$92,025 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
13°C
$25,120 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$14,485 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$10,684 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$7,916 Vol.
53%
17°C
$11,099 Vol.
20%
18°C
$5,716 Vol.
4%
19°C or higher
$6,471 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly forecasts project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 2 at 17°C around 3 PM local time under cloudy conditions with intermittent showers and high humidity (75-93%), yet trader consensus prices 16°C at 82.5% implied probability, reflecting skepticism from recent steady rainfall over the past 48 hours that has saturated soils, cooled surface layers, and limited daytime solar heating. Current observations as of mid-afternoon show 14.4°C, aligning with gradual warming from morning lows near 10°C amid light winds (5-24 km/h). April climatology supports highs near 16°C on average, with model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS showing similar spreads; final resolution hinges on late-afternoon measurements from official stations before evening cooldown.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ET
Volume
$92,025End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly forecasts project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 2 at 17°C around 3 PM local time under cloudy conditions with intermittent showers and high humidity (75-93%), yet trader consensus prices 16°C at 82.5% implied probability, reflecting skepticism from recent steady rainfall over the past 48 hours that has saturated soils, cooled surface layers, and limited daytime solar heating. Current observations as of mid-afternoon show 14.4°C, aligning with gradual warming from morning lows near 10°C amid light winds (5-24 km/h). April climatology supports highs near 16°C on average, with model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS showing similar spreads; final resolution hinges on late-afternoon measurements from official stations before evening cooldown.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$92,025End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly forecasts project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 2 at 17°C around 3 PM local time under cloudy conditions with intermittent showers and high humidity (75-93%), yet trader consensus prices 16°C at 82.5% implied probability, reflecting skepticism from recent steady rainfall over the past 48 hours that has saturated soils, cooled surface layers, and limited daytime solar heating. Current observations as of mid-afternoon show 14.4°C, aligning with gradual warming from morning lows near 10°C amid light winds (5-24 km/h). April climatology supports highs near 16°C on average, with model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS showing similar spreads; final resolution hinges on late-afternoon measurements from official stations before evening cooldown.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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