Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 43.5% probability for Dallas's highest temperature on April 3 reaching 82-83°F, closely tracking National Weather Service guidance projecting a high near 85°F under partly sunny skies after morning thunderstorms. This positioning stems from the latest forecast model consensus, which anticipates post-frontal clearing and southerly winds gusting 20-30 mph to boost temperatures above the early April climatological normal of 74°F, despite lingering cloud cover potentially capping peak heating. Recent developments include a record-warm March averaging 67.6°F—the warmest on record—and NOAA's spring outlook for above-normal temperatures amid persistent drought conditions; however, an approaching cold front raises shower and severe storm risks Friday, introducing uncertainty that favors slightly tempered 80s outcomes over 90°F extremes. Watch for NWS updates this afternoon as new model runs could shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on April 3?
Highest temperature in Dallas on April 3?
82-83°F 40%
80-81°F 27%
84-85°F 14%
78-79°F 11%
$15,442 Vol.
$15,442 Vol.
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
27%
82-83°F
40%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
4%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 40%
80-81°F 27%
84-85°F 14%
78-79°F 11%
$15,442 Vol.
$15,442 Vol.
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
27%
82-83°F
40%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
4%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 43.5% probability for Dallas's highest temperature on April 3 reaching 82-83°F, closely tracking National Weather Service guidance projecting a high near 85°F under partly sunny skies after morning thunderstorms. This positioning stems from the latest forecast model consensus, which anticipates post-frontal clearing and southerly winds gusting 20-30 mph to boost temperatures above the early April climatological normal of 74°F, despite lingering cloud cover potentially capping peak heating. Recent developments include a record-warm March averaging 67.6°F—the warmest on record—and NOAA's spring outlook for above-normal temperatures amid persistent drought conditions; however, an approaching cold front raises shower and severe storm risks Friday, introducing uncertainty that favors slightly tempered 80s outcomes over 90°F extremes. Watch for NWS updates this afternoon as new model runs could shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions