Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 17°C in Ankara on March 28 at 100% implied probability, anchored by official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) at Esenboğa International Airport and Etimesgut stations, which recorded a peak of exactly 17°C. Cloudy skies, intermittent light showers, and moderate northeasterly winds limited solar insolation and atmospheric mixing, aligning with pre-event consensus from ECMWF and GFS models forecasting subdued highs amid a cool front. March climatology supports this, with typical daily maxima around 12–15°C. Realistic challenges are minimal but could include rare MGM data revisions from instrument calibration checks, though rigorous quality controls make shifts improbable. Final hourly data releases are pending confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on March 28?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 28?
17°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$140,247 Vol.
$140,247 Vol.
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$140,247 Vol.
$140,247 Vol.
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 17°C in Ankara on March 28 at 100% implied probability, anchored by official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) at Esenboğa International Airport and Etimesgut stations, which recorded a peak of exactly 17°C. Cloudy skies, intermittent light showers, and moderate northeasterly winds limited solar insolation and atmospheric mixing, aligning with pre-event consensus from ECMWF and GFS models forecasting subdued highs amid a cool front. March climatology supports this, with typical daily maxima around 12–15°C. Realistic challenges are minimal but could include rare MGM data revisions from instrument calibration checks, though rigorous quality controls make shifts improbable. Final hourly data releases are pending confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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