Finland's duo Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen lead Polymarket trader consensus at 35.4% implied probability for Eurovision 2026 victory, driven by their "Liekinheitin" triumph at UMK on February 28 and sustained momentum from high jury scores, televote energy, and top OGAE fan votes like France's 12 points last week. France's 17-year-old soprano Monroe ("Regarde!"), announced March 6, has climbed to 13.5% on standout live performances boosting her frontrunner status. Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund ("Før Vi Går Hjem", DMGP winner February 14) and Australia's Delta Goodrem ("Eclipse", selected March 1) follow at 10.1% and 7.2%, with Greece's Akylas ("Ferto") at 6.8% gaining televote traction post-official music video drop March 11. As Vienna semis approach May 12-14, pre-parties and remaining national finals could spark shifts in this volatile jury-televote dynamic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedEurovision Winner 2026
Eurovision Winner 2026
Finland 35.5%
France 13.5%
Denmark 10.1%
Australia 7.1%
$51,101,709 Vol.
$51,101,709 Vol.

Finland
36%

France
14%

Denmark
10%

Australia
7%

Greece
7%

Israel
4%

Sweden
4%

Ukraine
2%

Italy
2%

Romania
2%

Cyprus
1%

Malta
1%

Czechia
1%

Bulgaria
1%

Germany
1%

Luxembourg
1%

Moldova
1%

Croatia
1%

Switzerland
1%

United Kingdom
1%

Belgium
1%

Norway
1%

Albania
<1%

Latvia
<1%

Armenia
<1%

Azerbaijan
<1%

Georgia
<1%

Lithuania
<1%

Montenegro
<1%

Poland
<1%

Serbia
<1%

Austria
<1%

Estonia
<1%

Portugal
<1%

San Marino
<1%
Finland 35.5%
France 13.5%
Denmark 10.1%
Australia 7.1%
$51,101,709 Vol.
$51,101,709 Vol.

Finland
36%

France
14%

Denmark
10%

Australia
7%

Greece
7%

Israel
4%

Sweden
4%

Ukraine
2%

Italy
2%

Romania
2%

Cyprus
1%

Malta
1%

Czechia
1%

Bulgaria
1%

Germany
1%

Luxembourg
1%

Moldova
1%

Croatia
1%

Switzerland
1%

United Kingdom
1%

Belgium
1%

Norway
1%

Albania
<1%

Latvia
<1%

Armenia
<1%

Azerbaijan
<1%

Georgia
<1%

Lithuania
<1%

Montenegro
<1%

Poland
<1%

Serbia
<1%

Austria
<1%

Estonia
<1%

Portugal
<1%

San Marino
<1%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Finland's duo Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen lead Polymarket trader consensus at 35.4% implied probability for Eurovision 2026 victory, driven by their "Liekinheitin" triumph at UMK on February 28 and sustained momentum from high jury scores, televote energy, and top OGAE fan votes like France's 12 points last week. France's 17-year-old soprano Monroe ("Regarde!"), announced March 6, has climbed to 13.5% on standout live performances boosting her frontrunner status. Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund ("Før Vi Går Hjem", DMGP winner February 14) and Australia's Delta Goodrem ("Eclipse", selected March 1) follow at 10.1% and 7.2%, with Greece's Akylas ("Ferto") at 6.8% gaining televote traction post-official music video drop March 11. As Vienna semis approach May 12-14, pre-parties and remaining national finals could spark shifts in this volatile jury-televote dynamic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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