Trader consensus on Polymarket shows a razor-thin split between 240-259 X posts (46% implied probability) and 260-279 (44%) for Elon Musk's activity from March 27 12:00 PM ET through April 3, driven by his steady pace of 31 posts per day over the first seven days, totaling 216 as of April 2 afternoon per XTracker analytics. This tight contest reflects consistent posting frequency without major spikes, though yesterday's SpaceX IPO filing and Tesla's Q1 delivery report—announcing weaker-than-expected sales—could catalyze a final-day surge in Musk's characteristic real-time commentary on company milestones. With hours left before resolution, swing factors include any viral reactions or extended threads amplifying his cultural influence on tech and markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated240-259 51.0%
260-279 42%
280-299 4.8%
300-319 <1%
$21,434,072 Vol.
$21,434,072 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
220-239
<1%
240-259
51%
260-279
42%
280-299
5%
300-319
1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
240-259 51.0%
260-279 42%
280-299 4.8%
300-319 <1%
$21,434,072 Vol.
$21,434,072 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
220-239
$1,433,324 Vol.
<1%
240-259
$832,191 Vol.
51%
260-279
$686,624 Vol.
42%
280-299
$660,703 Vol.
5%
300-319
$584,923 Vol.
1%
320-339
$758,088 Vol.
<1%
340-359
$477,891 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$410,635 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$383,467 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$397,221 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$315,251 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$239,175 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$223,179 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$184,547 Vol.
<1%
500-519
$159,087 Vol.
<1%
520-539
$127,691 Vol.
<1%
540-559
$140,046 Vol.
<1%
560-579
$112,397 Vol.
<1%
580+
$141,171 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 27 12:00 PM ET to April 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket shows a razor-thin split between 240-259 X posts (46% implied probability) and 260-279 (44%) for Elon Musk's activity from March 27 12:00 PM ET through April 3, driven by his steady pace of 31 posts per day over the first seven days, totaling 216 as of April 2 afternoon per XTracker analytics. This tight contest reflects consistent posting frequency without major spikes, though yesterday's SpaceX IPO filing and Tesla's Q1 delivery report—announcing weaker-than-expected sales—could catalyze a final-day surge in Musk's characteristic real-time commentary on company milestones. With hours left before resolution, swing factors include any viral reactions or extended threads amplifying his cultural influence on tech and markets.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 27 12:00 PM ET to April 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$21,434,072End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 27 12:00 PM ET to April 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket shows a razor-thin split between 240-259 X posts (46% implied probability) and 260-279 (44%) for Elon Musk's activity from March 27 12:00 PM ET through April 3, driven by his steady pace of 31 posts per day over the first seven days, totaling 216 as of April 2 afternoon per XTracker analytics. This tight contest reflects consistent posting frequency without major spikes, though yesterday's SpaceX IPO filing and Tesla's Q1 delivery report—announcing weaker-than-expected sales—could catalyze a final-day surge in Musk's characteristic real-time commentary on company milestones. With hours left before resolution, swing factors include any viral reactions or extended threads amplifying his cultural influence on tech and markets.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 27 12:00 PM ET to April 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$21,434,072End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket shows a razor-thin split between 240-259 X posts (46% implied probability) and 260-279 (44%) for Elon Musk's activity from March 27 12:00 PM ET through April 3, driven by his steady pace of 31 posts per day over the first seven days, totaling 216 as of April 2 afternoon per XTracker analytics. This tight contest reflects consistent posting frequency without major spikes, though yesterday's SpaceX IPO filing and Tesla's Q1 delivery report—announcing weaker-than-expected sales—could catalyze a final-day surge in Musk's characteristic real-time commentary on company milestones. With hours left before resolution, swing factors include any viral reactions or extended threads amplifying his cultural influence on tech and markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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