Name: 'Dune: Part Two' Total Domestic Box Office
Start: 2024-02-29T23:54:00Z
End: 2024-05-15T00:00:00Z

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The market will resolve to "Yes" if ‘Dune: Part Two' (2024) grosses less than $200,000,000 domestically through May 15, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is Box Office Mojo. Specifically the "To Date" tab on (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15239678/) will be used, summing up all daily gross amounts through May 15 (inclusive).

Note, only finalized gross amounts will be used - estimates will not be used. 

If the data is not available on the resolution source by May 19, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, then another credible source will be chosen and checked.



<$200m

The market will resolve to "Yes" if ‘Dune: Part Two' (2024) grosses between $250,000,000 (inclusive) and 300,000,000 (inclusive) domestically through May 15, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is Box Office Mojo. Specifically the "To Date" tab on (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15239678/) will be used, summing up all daily gross amounts through May 15 (inclusive).

Note, only finalized gross amounts will be used - estimates will not be used. 

If the data is not available on the resolution source by May 19, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, then another credible source will be chosen and checked.



$250m-300m

The market will resolve to "Yes" if ‘Dune: Part Two' (2024) grosses between $200,000,000 (inclusive) and 250,000,000 (exclusive) domestically through May 15, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is Box Office Mojo. Specifically the "To Date" tab on (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15239678/) will be used, summing up all daily gross amounts through May 15 (inclusive).

Note, only finalized gross amounts will be used - estimates will not be used. 

If the data is not available on the resolution source by May 19, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, then another credible source will be chosen and checked.



$200m-250m

The market will resolve to "Yes" if ‘Dune: Part Two' (2024) grosses more than $300,000,000 domestically through May 15, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is Box Office Mojo. Specifically the "To Date" tab on (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15239678/) will be used, summing up all daily gross amounts through May 15 (inclusive).

Note, only finalized gross amounts will be used - estimates will not be used. 

If the data is not available on the resolution source by May 19, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, then another credible source will be chosen and checked.



>$300m

'Dune: Part Two' Total Domestic Box Office

This is a market on how whether 'Wicked: For Good' (2025) will have the second-highest domestic gross on its opening weekend compared to all other movies released in 2025. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-For-Good-(2025)#tab=box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 21 - 23) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Wicked: For Good' (2025) grosses the second-highest on its 3-day domestic opening weekend compared to any other movie in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If two other movies' opening weekend box office performances surpass that of 'Wicked: For Good' (2025) after the respective numbers are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will rank higher.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

This market will resolve according to how much "Avatar: Fire and Ash" box office will gross domestically by January 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (December 19, 2025) and January 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including January 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?

This market will resolve to the movie with the second highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available.

Data from the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses will be used to resolve this market.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?

This market will resolve to the movie with the third highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available.

Data from the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses will be used to resolve this market.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

This is a market on how whether 'Lilo & Stitch' (2025) will have the third-highest domestic gross on its opening weekend compared to all other movies released in 2025. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on https://www.the-numbers.com will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Lilo & Stitch' (2025) grosses the third-highest on its 3-day domestic opening weekend compared to any other movie in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If three other movies' opening weekend box office performances surpass that of 'Lilo & Stitch' (2025) after the respective numbers are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will rank higher.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will 'Lilo & Stitch' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Wicked" if “Wicked: For Good” (2025) will gross more domestically on its opening weekend compared to "Avatar: Fire and Ash" (2025).

This market will resolve to "Avatar" if “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (2025) will gross at least as much on its opening weekend compared to "Wicked: For Good" (2025).

The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on The Numbers “Box Office” tab for "Wicked: For Good" (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-For-Good-(2025)#tab=summary) and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Avatar-Fire-and-Ash-(2025)#tab=summary) will be used once the values for each film's 3-day opening weekend (November 21-23/December 19-21) are final (i.e. not studio estimates). 

Please note that this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether 'domestic' refers to only the USA, or to the USA and Canada, etc.

If there is no final data available by December 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'A Minecraft Movie' (2025) as the film with the highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) is greater than $250b. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data  for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.


'Dune: Part Two' Total Domestic Box Office

<$200m
$6,827 Vol.
No

$200m-250m
$36,013 Vol.
No

$250m-300m
$54,280 Vol.
Yes

>$300m
$170,860 Vol.
No

Market Context

'Dune: Part Two' Total Domestic Box Office

Rules

'Dune: Part Two' Total Domestic Box Office

Market Context

'Dune: Part Two' Total Domestic Box Office

About

Related

'Dune: Part Two' Total Domestic Box Office

<$200m$6,827 Vol.Nocircle xmark

$200m-250m$36,013 Vol.Nocircle xmark

$250m-300m$54,280 Vol.Yescircle check

>$300m$170,860 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

'Dune: Part Two' Total Domestic Box Office

Rules

'Dune: Part Two' Total Domestic Box Office

Market Context

'Dune: Part Two' Total Domestic Box Office

About

Related

<$200m
$6,827 Vol.
No

$200m-250m
$36,013 Vol.
No

$250m-300m
$54,280 Vol.
Yes

>$300m
$170,860 Vol.
No