**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 70%, aligning closely with Beijing's official target of 4.5%–5% announced during the March Two Sessions by Premier Li Qiang—the lowest since the 1990s amid persistent property sector contraction, deflationary pressures, and U.S. tariff risks.** This positioning reflects economist projections around 4.5%–4.8% from Reuters polls and Goldman Sachs, bolstered by early 2026 economic momentum showing stronger-than-expected rebounds in domestic consumption and investment reported mid-March. Lower odds for higher brackets stem from structural shifts toward high-quality development over rapid expansion, while sub-4% outcomes see minimal support absent major stimulus escalation. Upcoming Q1 GDP data release in mid-April could shift probabilities based on confirmed quarterly performance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated4.0–5.0% 70%
5.0–6.0% 20.7%
6.0-7.0% 4.6%
3.0–4.0% 2.1%
$209,971 Vol.
$209,971 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
2%
2.0–3.0%
1%
3.0–4.0%
2%
4.0–5.0%
70%
5.0–6.0%
26%
6.0-7.0%
5%
7.0–8.0%
1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 70%
5.0–6.0% 20.7%
6.0-7.0% 4.6%
3.0–4.0% 2.1%
$209,971 Vol.
$209,971 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$16,987 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$26,514 Vol.
2%
2.0–3.0%
$5,691 Vol.
1%
3.0–4.0%
$6,735 Vol.
2%
4.0–5.0%
$17,268 Vol.
70%
5.0–6.0%
$15,372 Vol.
26%
6.0-7.0%
$18,822 Vol.
5%
7.0–8.0%
$28,459 Vol.
1%
8.0–9.0%
$5,988 Vol.
<1%
9.0%+
$68,134 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 70%, aligning closely with Beijing's official target of 4.5%–5% announced during the March Two Sessions by Premier Li Qiang—the lowest since the 1990s amid persistent property sector contraction, deflationary pressures, and U.S. tariff risks.** This positioning reflects economist projections around 4.5%–4.8% from Reuters polls and Goldman Sachs, bolstered by early 2026 economic momentum showing stronger-than-expected rebounds in domestic consumption and investment reported mid-March. Lower odds for higher brackets stem from structural shifts toward high-quality development over rapid expansion, while sub-4% outcomes see minimal support absent major stimulus escalation. Upcoming Q1 GDP data release in mid-April could shift probabilities based on confirmed quarterly performance.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$209,971End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 70%, aligning closely with Beijing's official target of 4.5%–5% announced during the March Two Sessions by Premier Li Qiang—the lowest since the 1990s amid persistent property sector contraction, deflationary pressures, and U.S. tariff risks.** This positioning reflects economist projections around 4.5%–4.8% from Reuters polls and Goldman Sachs, bolstered by early 2026 economic momentum showing stronger-than-expected rebounds in domestic consumption and investment reported mid-March. Lower odds for higher brackets stem from structural shifts toward high-quality development over rapid expansion, while sub-4% outcomes see minimal support absent major stimulus escalation. Upcoming Q1 GDP data release in mid-April could shift probabilities based on confirmed quarterly performance.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$209,971End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 70%, aligning closely with Beijing's official target of 4.5%–5% announced during the March Two Sessions by Premier Li Qiang—the lowest since the 1990s amid persistent property sector contraction, deflationary pressures, and U.S. tariff risks.** This positioning reflects economist projections around 4.5%–4.8% from Reuters polls and Goldman Sachs, bolstered by early 2026 economic momentum showing stronger-than-expected rebounds in domestic consumption and investment reported mid-March. Lower odds for higher brackets stem from structural shifts toward high-quality development over rapid expansion, while sub-4% outcomes see minimal support absent major stimulus escalation. Upcoming Q1 GDP data release in mid-April could shift probabilities based on confirmed quarterly performance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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