Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, aligning with forecasts from IMF (4.1%), World Bank, and analysts like Goldman Sachs amid structural headwinds including a protracted property sector crisis, deflationary pressures, and demographic decline. Recent Q3 2024 GDP expansion of 4.6% year-over-year—below expectations—coupled with weak retail sales and industrial output in October, has tempered optimism despite central bank rate cuts and fiscal stimulus pledges from the late-October Politburo meeting. The 5.0–6.0% outcome at 26% reflects hopes for stronger policy measures ahead of the 2025 National People's Congress targets, while trade tensions, including potential U.S. tariffs, cap higher ranges. Upcoming data releases and Third Plenum outcomes could shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated4.0–5.0% 71%
5.0–6.0% 26.2%
6.0-7.0% 2.7%
7.0–8.0% 1.5%
$194,060 Vol.
$194,060 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
1%
2.0–3.0%
1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
71%
5.0–6.0%
26%
6.0-7.0%
3%
7.0–8.0%
2%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 71%
5.0–6.0% 26.2%
6.0-7.0% 2.7%
7.0–8.0% 1.5%
$194,060 Vol.
$194,060 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$16,520 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$26,048 Vol.
1%
2.0–3.0%
$5,228 Vol.
1%
3.0–4.0%
$5,960 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$10,457 Vol.
71%
5.0–6.0%
$10,860 Vol.
26%
6.0-7.0%
$17,800 Vol.
3%
7.0–8.0%
$27,993 Vol.
2%
8.0–9.0%
$5,525 Vol.
1%
9.0%+
$67,669 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, aligning with forecasts from IMF (4.1%), World Bank, and analysts like Goldman Sachs amid structural headwinds including a protracted property sector crisis, deflationary pressures, and demographic decline. Recent Q3 2024 GDP expansion of 4.6% year-over-year—below expectations—coupled with weak retail sales and industrial output in October, has tempered optimism despite central bank rate cuts and fiscal stimulus pledges from the late-October Politburo meeting. The 5.0–6.0% outcome at 26% reflects hopes for stronger policy measures ahead of the 2025 National People's Congress targets, while trade tensions, including potential U.S. tariffs, cap higher ranges. Upcoming data releases and Third Plenum outcomes could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$194,060End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, aligning with forecasts from IMF (4.1%), World Bank, and analysts like Goldman Sachs amid structural headwinds including a protracted property sector crisis, deflationary pressures, and demographic decline. Recent Q3 2024 GDP expansion of 4.6% year-over-year—below expectations—coupled with weak retail sales and industrial output in October, has tempered optimism despite central bank rate cuts and fiscal stimulus pledges from the late-October Politburo meeting. The 5.0–6.0% outcome at 26% reflects hopes for stronger policy measures ahead of the 2025 National People's Congress targets, while trade tensions, including potential U.S. tariffs, cap higher ranges. Upcoming data releases and Third Plenum outcomes could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$194,060End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, aligning with forecasts from IMF (4.1%), World Bank, and analysts like Goldman Sachs amid structural headwinds including a protracted property sector crisis, deflationary pressures, and demographic decline. Recent Q3 2024 GDP expansion of 4.6% year-over-year—below expectations—coupled with weak retail sales and industrial output in October, has tempered optimism despite central bank rate cuts and fiscal stimulus pledges from the late-October Politburo meeting. The 5.0–6.0% outcome at 26% reflects hopes for stronger policy measures ahead of the 2025 National People's Congress targets, while trade tensions, including potential U.S. tariffs, cap higher ranges. Upcoming data releases and Third Plenum outcomes could shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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