President Trump formally nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair on March 4, 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell whose term ends May 15, with the Senate Banking Committee now scheduling a confirmation hearing for April 16. Trader consensus at 96.5% implied probability for Warsh reflects his extensive central bank experience from 2006–2011, alignment with administration priorities on monetary policy, and Republican Senate majority facilitating a simple majority vote, following resolution of early holds by senators like Thom Tillis over a DOJ probe into Powell. Recent impasse reports tied to that investigation and Iran tensions have dissipated, building momentum. Realistic challenges include unexpected GOP defections during hearings, procedural delays pushing past May, or late scandals prompting withdrawal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoKevin Warsh 96.4%
Judy Shelton 1.1%
Michelle Bowman <1%
Stephen Miran <1%
$20,994,538 Vol.
$20,994,538 Vol.
Kevin Warsh
96%
Judy Shelton
1%
Kevin Hassett
<1%
Christopher Waller
<1%
Jerome Powell
<1%
Stephen Miran
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
Rick Reider
<1%
Michelle Bowman
1%
Kevin Warsh 96.4%
Judy Shelton 1.1%
Michelle Bowman <1%
Stephen Miran <1%
$20,994,538 Vol.
$20,994,538 Vol.
Kevin Warsh
96%
Judy Shelton
1%
Kevin Hassett
<1%
Christopher Waller
<1%
Jerome Powell
<1%
Stephen Miran
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
Rick Reider
<1%
Michelle Bowman
1%
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...President Trump formally nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair on March 4, 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell whose term ends May 15, with the Senate Banking Committee now scheduling a confirmation hearing for April 16. Trader consensus at 96.5% implied probability for Warsh reflects his extensive central bank experience from 2006–2011, alignment with administration priorities on monetary policy, and Republican Senate majority facilitating a simple majority vote, following resolution of early holds by senators like Thom Tillis over a DOJ probe into Powell. Recent impasse reports tied to that investigation and Iran tensions have dissipated, building momentum. Realistic challenges include unexpected GOP defections during hearings, procedural delays pushing past May, or late scandals prompting withdrawal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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