Market icon
Política·Trump

¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?

Market icon
Política·Trump

¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?

Kevin Warsh 95.0%

Judy Shelton 1.8%

Michelle Bowman 1.3%

Rick Reider <1%

Polymarket

$14,320,723 Vol.

Kevin Warsh 95.0%

Judy Shelton 1.8%

Michelle Bowman 1.3%

Rick Reider <1%

Polymarket

$14,320,723 Vol.

Kevin Warsh

$2,535,860 Vol.

95%

Judy Shelton

$6,691,599 Vol.

2%

Kevin Hassett

$512,575 Vol.

<1%

Christopher Waller

$472,043 Vol.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$717,439 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Miran

$474,590 Vol.

<1%

Scott Bessent

$1,352,994 Vol.

<1%

Rick Reider

$521,703 Vol.

1%

Michelle Bowman

$1,042,088 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's formal nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, submitted to the Senate for confirmation before Jerome Powell's term ends May 15, has driven trader consensus to a 95% implied probability for Warsh, reflecting his prior experience as a Fed governor from 2006–2011 and alignment with administration priorities amid inflation concerns. Republican Senate majority supports advancement, with leadership poised to override potential holds. Recent reports of an "impasse" tied to escalating Iran tensions and GOP moderates like Senators Tillis and Murkowski pose risks, alongside Democratic scrutiny from Senator Warren during pre-hearing questions; prolonged delays, withdrawal, or failure to secure a floor vote could shift odds toward alternatives like Michelle Bowman or Judy Shelton. Confirmation hearings remain the key upcoming catalyst.

President Trump's formal nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, submitted to the Senate for confirmation before Jerome Powell's term ends May 15, has driven trader consensus to a 95% implied probability for Warsh, reflecting his prior experience as a Fed governor from 2006–2011 and alignment with administration priorities amid inflation concerns. Republican Senate majority supports advancement, with leadership poised to override potential holds. Recent reports of an "impasse" tied to escalating Iran tensions and GOP moderates like Senators Tillis and Murkowski pose risks, alongside Democratic scrutiny from Senator Warren during pre-hearing questions; prolonged delays, withdrawal, or failure to secure a floor vote could shift odds toward alternatives like Michelle Bowman or Judy Shelton. Confirmation hearings remain the key upcoming catalyst.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's formal nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, submitted to the Senate for confirmation before Jerome Powell's term ends May 15, has driven trader consensus to a 95% implied probability for Warsh, reflecting his prior experience as a Fed governor from 2006–2011 and alignment with administration priorities amid inflation concerns. Republican Senate majority supports advancement, with leadership poised to override potential holds. Recent reports of an "impasse" tied to escalating Iran tensions and GOP moderates like Senators Tillis and Murkowski pose risks, alongside Democratic scrutiny from Senator Warren during pre-hearing questions; prolonged delays, withdrawal, or failure to secure a floor vote could shift odds toward alternatives like Michelle Bowman or Judy Shelton. Confirmation hearings remain the key upcoming catalyst.

President Trump's formal nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, submitted to the Senate for confirmation before Jerome Powell's term ends May 15, has driven trader consensus to a 95% implied probability for Warsh, reflecting his prior experience as a Fed governor from 2006–2011 and alignment with administration priorities amid inflation concerns. Republican Senate majority supports advancement, with leadership poised to override potential holds. Recent reports of an "impasse" tied to escalating Iran tensions and GOP moderates like Senators Tillis and Murkowski pose risks, alongside Democratic scrutiny from Senator Warren during pre-hearing questions; prolonged delays, withdrawal, or failure to secure a floor vote could shift odds toward alternatives like Michelle Bowman or Judy Shelton. Confirmation hearings remain the key upcoming catalyst.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 9 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Kevin Warsh" con 95%, seguido de "Judy Shelton" con 2%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 95¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 95% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?" ha generado $14.3 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 4, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?", explora los 9 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?" es "Kevin Warsh" con 95%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 95% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Judy Shelton" con 2%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.