President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, following his January announcement, drives trader consensus at over 95% implied probability, bolstered by Warsh's extensive central bank experience from 2006-2011 and alignment with administration priorities on rate cuts and balance sheet reduction amid a Republican Senate majority. Recent Capitol Hill meetings by Warsh coincide with ongoing impasse from Sen. Thom Tillis's hold, conditioned on dropping the DOJ criminal probe into Jerome Powell, alongside Democratic criticism from Sen. Elizabeth Warren. No Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing is scheduled, but timeline pressure before Powell's May 15 term end favors resolution; challenges include prolonged holds, geopolitical distractions like the Iran conflict, or unforeseen scandals prompting an alternate nominee.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoKevin Warsh 95.2%
Judy Shelton 1.7%
Michelle Bowman 1.1%
Rick Reider <1%
$14,868,446 Vol.
$14,868,446 Vol.
Kevin Warsh
95%
Judy Shelton
2%
Kevin Hassett
<1%
Christopher Waller
<1%
Jerome Powell
<1%
Stephen Miran
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
Rick Reider
1%
Michelle Bowman
1%
Kevin Warsh 95.2%
Judy Shelton 1.7%
Michelle Bowman 1.1%
Rick Reider <1%
$14,868,446 Vol.
$14,868,446 Vol.
Kevin Warsh
95%
Judy Shelton
2%
Kevin Hassett
<1%
Christopher Waller
<1%
Jerome Powell
<1%
Stephen Miran
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
Rick Reider
1%
Michelle Bowman
1%
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, following his January announcement, drives trader consensus at over 95% implied probability, bolstered by Warsh's extensive central bank experience from 2006-2011 and alignment with administration priorities on rate cuts and balance sheet reduction amid a Republican Senate majority. Recent Capitol Hill meetings by Warsh coincide with ongoing impasse from Sen. Thom Tillis's hold, conditioned on dropping the DOJ criminal probe into Jerome Powell, alongside Democratic criticism from Sen. Elizabeth Warren. No Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing is scheduled, but timeline pressure before Powell's May 15 term end favors resolution; challenges include prolonged holds, geopolitical distractions like the Iran conflict, or unforeseen scandals prompting an alternate nominee.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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