Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian missile production and air defense sites on October 26 represented the most recent direct military action against Iran, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage amid escalating proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Both nations have since signaled de-escalation to avoid broader war, with Iran downplaying the strikes and Israel focusing on neutralizing threats from Iranian allies. Incoming U.S. President Trump's hawkish foreign policy, set for inauguration on January 20, introduces uncertainty, as do stalled nuclear talks and IAEA scrutiny of Iran's uranium enrichment. Traders monitor for spillover from Gaza ceasefire efforts or renewed proxy escalations before the March 31 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$10,073,687 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
EAU
6%
Arabia Saudita
6%
Kuwait
4%
Bahréin
4%
Qatar
2%
Cualquier país de la UE
2%
Reino Unido
1%
Jordania
1%
Turquía
1%
Francia
1%
Omán
<1%
Alemania
<1%
Canadá
<1%
$10,073,687 Vol.
EAU
$2,504,410 Vol.
6%
Arabia Saudita
$1,982,137 Vol.
6%
Kuwait
$198,248 Vol.
4%
Bahréin
$378,952 Vol.
4%
Qatar
$913,158 Vol.
2%
Cualquier país de la UE
$438,438 Vol.
2%
Reino Unido
$925,473 Vol.
1%
Jordania
$183,015 Vol.
1%
Turquía
$465,386 Vol.
1%
Francia
$719,368 Vol.
1%
Omán
$128,149 Vol.
<1%
Alemania
$903,807 Vol.
<1%
Canadá
$333,347 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian missile production and air defense sites on October 26 represented the most recent direct military action against Iran, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage amid escalating proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Both nations have since signaled de-escalation to avoid broader war, with Iran downplaying the strikes and Israel focusing on neutralizing threats from Iranian allies. Incoming U.S. President Trump's hawkish foreign policy, set for inauguration on January 20, introduces uncertainty, as do stalled nuclear talks and IAEA scrutiny of Iran's uranium enrichment. Traders monitor for spillover from Gaza ceasefire efforts or renewed proxy escalations before the March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$10,073,687Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian missile production and air defense sites on October 26 represented the most recent direct military action against Iran, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage amid escalating proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Both nations have since signaled de-escalation to avoid broader war, with Iran downplaying the strikes and Israel focusing on neutralizing threats from Iranian allies. Incoming U.S. President Trump's hawkish foreign policy, set for inauguration on January 20, introduces uncertainty, as do stalled nuclear talks and IAEA scrutiny of Iran's uranium enrichment. Traders monitor for spillover from Gaza ceasefire efforts or renewed proxy escalations before the March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$10,073,687Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian missile production and air defense sites on October 26 represented the most recent direct military action against Iran, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage amid escalating proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Both nations have since signaled de-escalation to avoid broader war, with Iran downplaying the strikes and Israel focusing on neutralizing threats from Iranian allies. Incoming U.S. President Trump's hawkish foreign policy, set for inauguration on January 20, introduces uncertainty, as do stalled nuclear talks and IAEA scrutiny of Iran's uranium enrichment. Traders monitor for spillover from Gaza ceasefire efforts or renewed proxy escalations before the March 31 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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