The United States and Israel launched massive airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets on February 28, 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and igniting an ongoing war with Iranian missile and drone retaliations against Israel, US bases, and Gulf allies. Recent escalations include over 10,000 US strikes reported on March 25 and Israeli warnings of expanding operations on March 27, amid a US 15-point diplomatic proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 24. Saudi Arabia, UAE, UK, France, Germany, and others signal potential defensive strikes if Iran targets their energy infrastructure, as seen in recent drone attacks on Bahrain. With the March 31 deadline imminent, traders weigh de-escalation signals against risks of further coalition involvement in this rapidly evolving conflict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$10,310,224 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Arabia Saudita
7%
EAU
5%
Qatar
3%
Bahréin
2%
Kuwait
2%
Reino Unido
1%
Cualquier país de la UE
1%
Jordania
1%
Francia
1%
Turquía
1%
Omán
1%
Canadá
<1%
Alemania
<1%
$10,310,224 Vol.
Arabia Saudita
$2,094,572 Vol.
7%
EAU
$2,550,840 Vol.
5%
Qatar
$929,303 Vol.
3%
Bahréin
$387,554 Vol.
2%
Kuwait
$208,449 Vol.
2%
Reino Unido
$936,853 Vol.
1%
Cualquier país de la UE
$455,558 Vol.
1%
Jordania
$184,878 Vol.
1%
Francia
$722,879 Vol.
1%
Turquía
$470,471 Vol.
1%
Omán
$128,622 Vol.
1%
Canadá
$333,953 Vol.
<1%
Alemania
$906,298 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel launched massive airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets on February 28, 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and igniting an ongoing war with Iranian missile and drone retaliations against Israel, US bases, and Gulf allies. Recent escalations include over 10,000 US strikes reported on March 25 and Israeli warnings of expanding operations on March 27, amid a US 15-point diplomatic proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 24. Saudi Arabia, UAE, UK, France, Germany, and others signal potential defensive strikes if Iran targets their energy infrastructure, as seen in recent drone attacks on Bahrain. With the March 31 deadline imminent, traders weigh de-escalation signals against risks of further coalition involvement in this rapidly evolving conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$10,310,224Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel launched massive airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets on February 28, 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and igniting an ongoing war with Iranian missile and drone retaliations against Israel, US bases, and Gulf allies. Recent escalations include over 10,000 US strikes reported on March 25 and Israeli warnings of expanding operations on March 27, amid a US 15-point diplomatic proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 24. Saudi Arabia, UAE, UK, France, Germany, and others signal potential defensive strikes if Iran targets their energy infrastructure, as seen in recent drone attacks on Bahrain. With the March 31 deadline imminent, traders weigh de-escalation signals against risks of further coalition involvement in this rapidly evolving conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$10,310,224Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States and Israel launched massive airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets on February 28, 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and igniting an ongoing war with Iranian missile and drone retaliations against Israel, US bases, and Gulf allies. Recent escalations include over 10,000 US strikes reported on March 25 and Israeli warnings of expanding operations on March 27, amid a US 15-point diplomatic proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 24. Saudi Arabia, UAE, UK, France, Germany, and others signal potential defensive strikes if Iran targets their energy infrastructure, as seen in recent drone attacks on Bahrain. With the March 31 deadline imminent, traders weigh de-escalation signals against risks of further coalition involvement in this rapidly evolving conflict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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