Amid the US-Israel-Iran war that began February 28, 2026, with coalition airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and crippling nuclear sites, Iran has sustained near-daily missile barrages on Israel—about 10 per day as of March 27—while wounding over 300 US troops at a Saudi air base that day. Iran-backed Houthis escalated March 28 with their first direct missile strike on Israel, amid Gulf states' UN warnings of existential threats from Iranian attacks. President Trump's postponement of strikes on Iranian power plants to April 6 creates a narrow diplomatic pause, but Iran's degraded missile production and air defenses, hit repeatedly by Israeli raids like Arak on March 27, limit major retaliatory capacity against high-value Gulf energy targets by March 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Qué atacará Irán antes del 31 de marzo?
¿Qué atacará Irán antes del 31 de marzo?
$455,789 Vol.
Dimona (Centro de Investigación Nuclear Shimon Peres del Néguev)
2%
Burj Khalifa
4%
Campo Ghawar
10%
Campo Safaniya
8%
Instalación de procesamiento de petróleo de Abqaiq
9%
Refinería de Al Zour
12%
Leviathan Field
7%
Khurais Field
14%
Ras Tanura
6%
East–West Pipeline
7%
Campo/Complejo de Procesamiento Habshan
11%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
31%
$455,789 Vol.
Dimona (Centro de Investigación Nuclear Shimon Peres del Néguev)
$253,176 Vol.
2%
Burj Khalifa
$1,339 Vol.
4%
Campo Ghawar
$30,531 Vol.
10%
Campo Safaniya
$39,866 Vol.
8%
Instalación de procesamiento de petróleo de Abqaiq
$39,532 Vol.
9%
Refinería de Al Zour
$74,117 Vol.
12%
Leviathan Field
$1,106 Vol.
7%
Khurais Field
$4,997 Vol.
14%
Ras Tanura
$4,421 Vol.
6%
East–West Pipeline
$1,306 Vol.
7%
Campo/Complejo de Procesamiento Habshan
$946 Vol.
11%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$4,978 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the US-Israel-Iran war that began February 28, 2026, with coalition airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and crippling nuclear sites, Iran has sustained near-daily missile barrages on Israel—about 10 per day as of March 27—while wounding over 300 US troops at a Saudi air base that day. Iran-backed Houthis escalated March 28 with their first direct missile strike on Israel, amid Gulf states' UN warnings of existential threats from Iranian attacks. President Trump's postponement of strikes on Iranian power plants to April 6 creates a narrow diplomatic pause, but Iran's degraded missile production and air defenses, hit repeatedly by Israeli raids like Arak on March 27, limit major retaliatory capacity against high-value Gulf energy targets by March 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Volumen
$455,789Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the US-Israel-Iran war that began February 28, 2026, with coalition airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and crippling nuclear sites, Iran has sustained near-daily missile barrages on Israel—about 10 per day as of March 27—while wounding over 300 US troops at a Saudi air base that day. Iran-backed Houthis escalated March 28 with their first direct missile strike on Israel, amid Gulf states' UN warnings of existential threats from Iranian attacks. President Trump's postponement of strikes on Iranian power plants to April 6 creates a narrow diplomatic pause, but Iran's degraded missile production and air defenses, hit repeatedly by Israeli raids like Arak on March 27, limit major retaliatory capacity against high-value Gulf energy targets by March 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volumen
$455,789Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israel-Iran war that began February 28, 2026, with coalition airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and crippling nuclear sites, Iran has sustained near-daily missile barrages on Israel—about 10 per day as of March 27—while wounding over 300 US troops at a Saudi air base that day. Iran-backed Houthis escalated March 28 with their first direct missile strike on Israel, amid Gulf states' UN warnings of existential threats from Iranian attacks. President Trump's postponement of strikes on Iranian power plants to April 6 creates a narrow diplomatic pause, but Iran's degraded missile production and air defenses, hit repeatedly by Israeli raids like Arak on March 27, limit major retaliatory capacity against high-value Gulf energy targets by March 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes