Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran—including Israel's March 27 attacks on nuclear facilities at heavy water complexes and yellowcake plants—Tehran has vowed broader retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure, shifting from limited responses to continuous missile and drone barrages. Overnight March 28 strikes hit Bahrain's BAPCO oil facility, igniting fires, and a Saudi base injuring US troops, continuing Iran's campaign against regional targets since mid-March hits on Qatar's Ras Laffan and UAE's Ruwais refinery. President Trump's extension of the April 7 deadline to target Iranian power plants, coupled with Pakistan-mediated ceasefire talks, tempers trader consensus, pricing under 11% odds for physical damage to specific sites like Saudi's Ras Tanura or Abqaiq by March 31 amid de-escalation signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Qué atacará Irán antes del 31 de marzo?
¿Qué atacará Irán antes del 31 de marzo?
$450,152 Vol.
Dimona (Centro de Investigación Nuclear Shimon Peres del Néguev)
3%
Burj Khalifa
3%
Campo Ghawar
9%
Campo Safaniya
9%
Instalación de procesamiento de petróleo de Abqaiq
11%
Refinería de Al Zour
11%
Leviathan Field
8%
Khurais Field
12%
Ras Tanura
10%
East–West Pipeline
7%
Campo/Complejo de Procesamiento Habshan
12%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
25%
$450,152 Vol.
Dimona (Centro de Investigación Nuclear Shimon Peres del Néguev)
$251,110 Vol.
3%
Burj Khalifa
$1,339 Vol.
3%
Campo Ghawar
$30,358 Vol.
9%
Campo Safaniya
$39,777 Vol.
9%
Instalación de procesamiento de petróleo de Abqaiq
$38,986 Vol.
11%
Refinería de Al Zour
$74,086 Vol.
11%
Leviathan Field
$796 Vol.
8%
Khurais Field
$4,573 Vol.
12%
Ras Tanura
$4,290 Vol.
10%
East–West Pipeline
$1,306 Vol.
7%
Campo/Complejo de Procesamiento Habshan
$0 Vol.
12%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$3,530 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran—including Israel's March 27 attacks on nuclear facilities at heavy water complexes and yellowcake plants—Tehran has vowed broader retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure, shifting from limited responses to continuous missile and drone barrages. Overnight March 28 strikes hit Bahrain's BAPCO oil facility, igniting fires, and a Saudi base injuring US troops, continuing Iran's campaign against regional targets since mid-March hits on Qatar's Ras Laffan and UAE's Ruwais refinery. President Trump's extension of the April 7 deadline to target Iranian power plants, coupled with Pakistan-mediated ceasefire talks, tempers trader consensus, pricing under 11% odds for physical damage to specific sites like Saudi's Ras Tanura or Abqaiq by March 31 amid de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Volumen
$450,152Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran—including Israel's March 27 attacks on nuclear facilities at heavy water complexes and yellowcake plants—Tehran has vowed broader retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure, shifting from limited responses to continuous missile and drone barrages. Overnight March 28 strikes hit Bahrain's BAPCO oil facility, igniting fires, and a Saudi base injuring US troops, continuing Iran's campaign against regional targets since mid-March hits on Qatar's Ras Laffan and UAE's Ruwais refinery. President Trump's extension of the April 7 deadline to target Iranian power plants, coupled with Pakistan-mediated ceasefire talks, tempers trader consensus, pricing under 11% odds for physical damage to specific sites like Saudi's Ras Tanura or Abqaiq by March 31 amid de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volumen
$450,152Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran—including Israel's March 27 attacks on nuclear facilities at heavy water complexes and yellowcake plants—Tehran has vowed broader retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure, shifting from limited responses to continuous missile and drone barrages. Overnight March 28 strikes hit Bahrain's BAPCO oil facility, igniting fires, and a Saudi base injuring US troops, continuing Iran's campaign against regional targets since mid-March hits on Qatar's Ras Laffan and UAE's Ruwais refinery. President Trump's extension of the April 7 deadline to target Iranian power plants, coupled with Pakistan-mediated ceasefire talks, tempers trader consensus, pricing under 11% odds for physical damage to specific sites like Saudi's Ras Tanura or Abqaiq by March 31 amid de-escalation signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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