Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, Iran has retaliated with seven waves of missiles targeting Israel as of March 25, alongside drone and missile strikes on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE facilities hosting US assets. IRGC commanders have signaled readiness for major offensives against American bases and regional infrastructure, while mobilizing up to one million troops. Recent White House threats of further action underscore stalled diplomacy, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over whether Iran will expand attacks to critical Gulf oil refineries, fields, or pipelines like Ras Tanura or Ghawar before April 30 amid ongoing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoWhat will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
$53,006 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Ras Laffan Industrial City
52%
Ras Tanura
40%
Al Zour Refinery
27%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
26%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
26%
Ruwais Refinery
26%
Ghawar Field
25%
East–West Pipeline
20%
Khurais Field
20%
Safaniya Field
19%
Leviathan Field
18%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
17%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
11%
Burj Khalifa
6%
$53,006 Vol.
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$11,298 Vol.
52%
Ras Tanura
$4,317 Vol.
40%
Al Zour Refinery
$0 Vol.
27%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
$3,163 Vol.
26%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$6,228 Vol.
26%
Ruwais Refinery
$1,865 Vol.
26%
Ghawar Field
$532 Vol.
25%
East–West Pipeline
$4,923 Vol.
20%
Khurais Field
$4,354 Vol.
20%
Safaniya Field
$1,228 Vol.
19%
Leviathan Field
$1,490 Vol.
18%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$559 Vol.
17%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$12,719 Vol.
11%
Burj Khalifa
$330 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, Iran has retaliated with seven waves of missiles targeting Israel as of March 25, alongside drone and missile strikes on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE facilities hosting US assets. IRGC commanders have signaled readiness for major offensives against American bases and regional infrastructure, while mobilizing up to one million troops. Recent White House threats of further action underscore stalled diplomacy, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over whether Iran will expand attacks to critical Gulf oil refineries, fields, or pipelines like Ras Tanura or Ghawar before April 30 amid ongoing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$53,006Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, Iran has retaliated with seven waves of missiles targeting Israel as of March 25, alongside drone and missile strikes on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE facilities hosting US assets. IRGC commanders have signaled readiness for major offensives against American bases and regional infrastructure, while mobilizing up to one million troops. Recent White House threats of further action underscore stalled diplomacy, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over whether Iran will expand attacks to critical Gulf oil refineries, fields, or pipelines like Ras Tanura or Ghawar before April 30 amid ongoing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volumen
$53,006Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, Iran has retaliated with seven waves of missiles targeting Israel as of March 25, alongside drone and missile strikes on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE facilities hosting US assets. IRGC commanders have signaled readiness for major offensives against American bases and regional infrastructure, while mobilizing up to one million troops. Recent White House threats of further action underscore stalled diplomacy, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over whether Iran will expand attacks to critical Gulf oil refineries, fields, or pipelines like Ras Tanura or Ghawar before April 30 amid ongoing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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