Market icon
Economía·Jerome Powell

¿Qué alcanzará la tasa de la Fed antes de 2027?

Market icon
Economía·Jerome Powell

¿Qué alcanzará la tasa de la Fed antes de 2027?

$1,267,514 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,267,514 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5,5%

$42,270 Vol.

4%

↑ 5.25%

$135,537 Vol.

6%

↑ 5,0%

$9,703 Vol.

3%

↑ 4,75%

$65,442 Vol.

4%

↑ 4.5%

$9,817 Vol.

5%

↑ 4,25%

$21,737 Vol.

10%

↓ 3.25%

$52,862 Vol.

67%

↓ 3,0%

$214,649 Vol.

38%

↓ 2,75%

$250,226 Vol.

20%

↓ 2,5%

$171,423 Vol.

15%

↓ 2.25%

$21,904 Vol.

11%

↓ 2,0%

$14,547 Vol.

11%

↓ 1,75%

$5,943 Vol.

9%

↓ 1,5%

$24,836 Vol.

12%

↓ 1,25%

$893 Vol.

26%

↓ 1,0%

$0 Vol.

10%

↓ 0,75%

$388 Vol.

9%

↓ 0,5%

$89,227 Vol.

7%

↓ 0,25%

$117,158 Vol.

8%

↓ 0%

$10,116 Vol.

6%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the updated dot plot projecting a median 3.4% rate by year-end amid February CPI inflation holding at 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment edging up to 4.4%. CME FedWatch Tool reflects trader consensus with over 94% implied probability of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, pricing in limited easing due to resilient labor data offsetting cooling price pressures. Upcoming catalysts include April projections, May nonfarm payrolls, and June 16-17 FOMC, which could recalibrate market-implied paths for sub-3% rates before 2027 if disinflation accelerates.

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the updated dot plot projecting a median 3.4% rate by year-end amid February CPI inflation holding at 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment edging up to 4.4%. CME FedWatch Tool reflects trader consensus with over 94% implied probability of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, pricing in limited easing due to resilient labor data offsetting cooling price pressures. Upcoming catalysts include April projections, May nonfarm payrolls, and June 16-17 FOMC, which could recalibrate market-implied paths for sub-3% rates before 2027 if disinflation accelerates.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the updated dot plot projecting a median 3.4% rate by year-end amid February CPI inflation holding at 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment edging up to 4.4%. CME FedWatch Tool reflects trader consensus with over 94% implied probability of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, pricing in limited easing due to resilient labor data offsetting cooling price pressures. Upcoming catalysts include April projections, May nonfarm payrolls, and June 16-17 FOMC, which could recalibrate market-implied paths for sub-3% rates before 2027 if disinflation accelerates.

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the updated dot plot projecting a median 3.4% rate by year-end amid February CPI inflation holding at 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment edging up to 4.4%. CME FedWatch Tool reflects trader consensus with over 94% implied probability of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, pricing in limited easing due to resilient labor data offsetting cooling price pressures. Upcoming catalysts include April projections, May nonfarm payrolls, and June 16-17 FOMC, which could recalibrate market-implied paths for sub-3% rates before 2027 if disinflation accelerates.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Qué alcanzará la tasa de la Fed antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 21 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "↓ 3.5%" con 100%, seguido de "↓ 3.25%" con 67%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Qué alcanzará la tasa de la Fed antes de 2027?" ha generado $1.3 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 18, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Qué alcanzará la tasa de la Fed antes de 2027?", explora los 21 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Qué alcanzará la tasa de la Fed antes de 2027?" es "↓ 3.5%" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "↓ 3.25%" con 67%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Qué alcanzará la tasa de la Fed antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.