Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no coup attempt will materialize in Venezuela by March 31, driven by President Nicolás Maduro's iron grip on the military and security forces, with no verifiable signs of high-level defections or unrest since his contentious January 10 inauguration amid opposition protests and international non-recognition of his mandate. Post-2024 election demonstrations have ebbed without escalating to armed challenges, as the Venezuelan armed forces (FANB) have historically remained loyal despite U.S. sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Opposition leaders like Edmundo González prioritize electoral fraud claims and global pressure over violent overthrow. Realistic shifts could stem from a sudden general defection, assassination plot, or major economic collapse sparking mutiny, though such barriers keep "No" odds dominant.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$51,781 Vol.
$51,781 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Sí
$51,781 Vol.
$51,781 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Venezuela at any point between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no coup attempt will materialize in Venezuela by March 31, driven by President Nicolás Maduro's iron grip on the military and security forces, with no verifiable signs of high-level defections or unrest since his contentious January 10 inauguration amid opposition protests and international non-recognition of his mandate. Post-2024 election demonstrations have ebbed without escalating to armed challenges, as the Venezuelan armed forces (FANB) have historically remained loyal despite U.S. sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Opposition leaders like Edmundo González prioritize electoral fraud claims and global pressure over violent overthrow. Realistic shifts could stem from a sudden general defection, assassination plot, or major economic collapse sparking mutiny, though such barriers keep "No" odds dominant.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Venezuela at any point between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$51,781Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Venezuela at any point between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no coup attempt will materialize in Venezuela by March 31, driven by President Nicolás Maduro's iron grip on the military and security forces, with no verifiable signs of high-level defections or unrest since his contentious January 10 inauguration amid opposition protests and international non-recognition of his mandate. Post-2024 election demonstrations have ebbed without escalating to armed challenges, as the Venezuelan armed forces (FANB) have historically remained loyal despite U.S. sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Opposition leaders like Edmundo González prioritize electoral fraud claims and global pressure over violent overthrow. Realistic shifts could stem from a sudden general defection, assassination plot, or major economic collapse sparking mutiny, though such barriers keep "No" odds dominant.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Venezuela at any point between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$51,781Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no coup attempt will materialize in Venezuela by March 31, driven by President Nicolás Maduro's iron grip on the military and security forces, with no verifiable signs of high-level defections or unrest since his contentious January 10 inauguration amid opposition protests and international non-recognition of his mandate. Post-2024 election demonstrations have ebbed without escalating to armed challenges, as the Venezuelan armed forces (FANB) have historically remained loyal despite U.S. sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Opposition leaders like Edmundo González prioritize electoral fraud claims and global pressure over violent overthrow. Realistic shifts could stem from a sudden general defection, assassination plot, or major economic collapse sparking mutiny, though such barriers keep "No" odds dominant.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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