Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including missile production sites, represented the most recent major escalation in the Israel-Iran shadow war but deliberately avoided nuclear facilities like the fortified Fordow uranium enrichment plant buried deep underground. The International Atomic Energy Agency reported last month that Iran has installed advanced centrifuges at Fordow and amassed enough 60% enriched uranium for several nuclear weapons if further processed, shortening its breakout timeline. Israel lacks the heavy bunker-busters needed for a decisive strike, pointing to potential US involvement, especially under the incoming Trump administration's hawkish rhetoric on Iran's nuclear program. Traders eye proxy conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen for triggers, alongside diplomatic channels or IAEA updates that could shift escalation risks before year-end.