Surging global energy prices from the ongoing Middle East conflict, particularly the war in Iran, have driven Polymarket traders to price a 43.5% implied probability for U.K. annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026, closely trailed by 34.5% for 4.0–4.4%, reflecting consensus on persistent above-target pressures. February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0% year-over-year, with core measures rising to 3.2%, while Bank of England Agents report expected private sector pay settlements averaging 3.6%—both amplifying services inflation amid the energy shock. Trader sentiment differentiates on the conflict's duration: quick resolution could cap inflation nearer 4%, but prolongation risks pushing toward 5%+, ahead of the April 22 CPI release and BoE's May policy meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoInflación anual del Reino Unido 2026
Inflación anual del Reino Unido 2026
3,5–3,9% 17%
<1,0% 7%
1,0–1,4% 5.8%
1,5–1,9% 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 ene 2027
<1,0%
7%
1,0–1,4%
6%
1,5–1,9%
21%
2,0–2,4%
24%
2,5–2,9%
21%
3,5–3,9%
11%
4,0-4,4%
35%
4,5%+
44%
3,5–3,9% 17%
<1,0% 7%
1,0–1,4% 5.8%
1,5–1,9% 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 ene 2027
<1,0%
$0 Vol.
7%
1,0–1,4%
$0 Vol.
6%
1,5–1,9%
$448 Vol.
21%
2,0–2,4%
$267 Vol.
24%
2,5–2,9%
$350 Vol.
21%
3,5–3,9%
$0 Vol.
11%
4,0-4,4%
$0 Vol.
35%
4,5%+
$243 Vol.
44%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarSurging global energy prices from the ongoing Middle East conflict, particularly the war in Iran, have driven Polymarket traders to price a 43.5% implied probability for U.K. annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026, closely trailed by 34.5% for 4.0–4.4%, reflecting consensus on persistent above-target pressures. February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0% year-over-year, with core measures rising to 3.2%, while Bank of England Agents report expected private sector pay settlements averaging 3.6%—both amplifying services inflation amid the energy shock. Trader sentiment differentiates on the conflict's duration: quick resolution could cap inflation nearer 4%, but prolongation risks pushing toward 5%+, ahead of the April 22 CPI release and BoE's May policy meeting.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$1,309Fecha de finalización
20 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarSurging global energy prices from the ongoing Middle East conflict, particularly the war in Iran, have driven Polymarket traders to price a 43.5% implied probability for U.K. annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026, closely trailed by 34.5% for 4.0–4.4%, reflecting consensus on persistent above-target pressures. February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0% year-over-year, with core measures rising to 3.2%, while Bank of England Agents report expected private sector pay settlements averaging 3.6%—both amplifying services inflation amid the energy shock. Trader sentiment differentiates on the conflict's duration: quick resolution could cap inflation nearer 4%, but prolongation risks pushing toward 5%+, ahead of the April 22 CPI release and BoE's May policy meeting.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Volumen
$1,309Fecha de finalización
20 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Surging global energy prices from the ongoing Middle East conflict, particularly the war in Iran, have driven Polymarket traders to price a 43.5% implied probability for U.K. annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026, closely trailed by 34.5% for 4.0–4.4%, reflecting consensus on persistent above-target pressures. February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0% year-over-year, with core measures rising to 3.2%, while Bank of England Agents report expected private sector pay settlements averaging 3.6%—both amplifying services inflation amid the energy shock. Trader sentiment differentiates on the conflict's duration: quick resolution could cap inflation nearer 4%, but prolongation risks pushing toward 5%+, ahead of the April 22 CPI release and BoE's May policy meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes