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¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?

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¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría 53%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 18%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel 6.3%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,737,865 Vol.

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría 53%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 18%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel 6.3%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,737,865 Vol.

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría

$21,997 Vol.

53%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba

$16,047 Vol.

18%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel

$572,569 Vol.

6%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido

$557,349 Vol.

5%

Takaichi - Primera ministra de Japón

$276,545 Vol.

3%

Putin - Presidente de Rusia

$350,630 Vol.

2%

Petro - Presidente de Colombia

$12,654 Vol.

2%

Ninguno antes de 2027

$9,948 Vol.

2%

Zelenskyy - Presidente de Ucrania

$11,072 Vol.

1%

Trump - Presidente de EE. UU.

$203,746 Vol.

1%

Macron - Presidente de Francia

$67,941 Vol.

1%

Abbas - Presidente de Palestina

$58,110 Vol.

1%

Xi - Secretario General del PCCh

$39,413 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Primer ministro español

$11,107 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Presidenta interina de Venezuela

$20,309 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Presidente de Turquía

$75,554 Vol.

1%

Newsom - Gobernador de California

$113,161 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - Primer Ministro de Francia

$40,424 Vol.

1%

Albanese - Primer Ministro de Australia

$58,445 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Presidente de Argentina

$35,311 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Presidente de Brasil

$39,890 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Presidenta de México

$64,315 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Presidente de Siria

$27,985 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Líder Supremo de Corea del Norte

$24,785 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Canciller alemán

$28,572 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading outcome at 53% implied probability of exiting power before 2027, driven by October 2024 scandals involving pardons linked to his aides in child abuse cases, which sparked Budapest's largest protests in over a decade and weakened Fidesz polling ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, amid ongoing economic collapse, nationwide blackouts, hurricane damage, and protests fueling speculation of regime instability despite his term extending to 2028. Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 6.3% reflects Gaza war prolongation, coalition fractures after Benny Gantz's resignation from the war cabinet, and corruption trials, though no snap election is imminent before late 2026. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's lower odds at 4.7% stem from early backlash to budget cuts, but his recent landslide majority provides stability. These probabilities highlight skin-in-the-game assessments of political pressures, with Hungary's next vote as a key catalyst.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,737,865
Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading outcome at 53% implied probability of exiting power before 2027, driven by October 2024 scandals involving pardons linked to his aides in child abuse cases, which sparked Budapest's largest protests in over a decade and weakened Fidesz polling ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, amid ongoing economic collapse, nationwide blackouts, hurricane damage, and protests fueling speculation of regime instability despite his term extending to 2028. Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 6.3% reflects Gaza war prolongation, coalition fractures after Benny Gantz's resignation from the war cabinet, and corruption trials, though no snap election is imminent before late 2026. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's lower odds at 4.7% stem from early backlash to budget cuts, but his recent landslide majority provides stability. These probabilities highlight skin-in-the-game assessments of political pressures, with Hungary's next vote as a key catalyst.

Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading outcome at 53% implied probability of exiting power before 2027, driven by October 2024 scandals involving pardons linked to his aides in child abuse cases, which sparked Budapest's largest protests in over a decade and weakened Fidesz polling ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, amid ongoing economic collapse, nationwide blackouts, hurricane damage, and protests fueling speculation of regime instability despite his term extending to 2028. Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 6.3% reflects Gaza war prolongation, coalition fractures after Benny Gantz's resignation from the war cabinet, and corruption trials, though no snap election is imminent before late 2026. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's lower odds at 4.7% stem from early backlash to budget cuts, but his recent landslide majority provides stability. These probabilities highlight skin-in-the-game assessments of political pressures, with Hungary's next vote as a key catalyst.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 25 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría" con 53%, seguido de "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" con 18%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 53¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 53% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" ha generado $2.7 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 3, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?", explora los 25 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" es "Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría" con 53%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 53% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" con 18%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.