Incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke’s retirement has opened Montana’s 1st congressional district, an R+5 seat covering western Montana, for the November 2026 general election. Trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 57.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting the district’s structural lean and the strength of the leading Republican primary contender, radio host Aaron Flint. Democrats, led by author and activist Ryan Busse, have raised substantial funds and secured early television ad reservations, positioning them to contest the open seat more aggressively than in prior cycles. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, though the absence of an incumbent and Democratic focus on liberal enclaves in Missoula and Bozeman keep the outcome within reach for either party ahead of the June 2 primaries.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMT-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
MT-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
51%
Partido Demócrata
43%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$1,011 Vol.
51%
Partido Demócrata
$392 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke’s retirement has opened Montana’s 1st congressional district, an R+5 seat covering western Montana, for the November 2026 general election. Trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 57.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting the district’s structural lean and the strength of the leading Republican primary contender, radio host Aaron Flint. Democrats, led by author and activist Ryan Busse, have raised substantial funds and secured early television ad reservations, positioning them to contest the open seat more aggressively than in prior cycles. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, though the absence of an incumbent and Democratic focus on liberal enclaves in Missoula and Bozeman keep the outcome within reach for either party ahead of the June 2 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
Volumen
$1,402Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke’s retirement has opened Montana’s 1st congressional district, an R+5 seat covering western Montana, for the November 2026 general election. Trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 57.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting the district’s structural lean and the strength of the leading Republican primary contender, radio host Aaron Flint. Democrats, led by author and activist Ryan Busse, have raised substantial funds and secured early television ad reservations, positioning them to contest the open seat more aggressively than in prior cycles. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, though the absence of an incumbent and Democratic focus on liberal enclaves in Missoula and Bozeman keep the outcome within reach for either party ahead of the June 2 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$1,402Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke’s retirement has opened Montana’s 1st congressional district, an R+5 seat covering western Montana, for the November 2026 general election. Trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 57.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting the district’s structural lean and the strength of the leading Republican primary contender, radio host Aaron Flint. Democrats, led by author and activist Ryan Busse, have raised substantial funds and secured early television ad reservations, positioning them to contest the open seat more aggressively than in prior cycles. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, though the absence of an incumbent and Democratic focus on liberal enclaves in Missoula and Bozeman keep the outcome within reach for either party ahead of the June 2 primaries.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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