US-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury continue unabated against Iranian military infrastructure, including recent hits on nuclear sites in Isfahan and Arak heavy-water facilities, as well as command posts and factories in Tehran and Mashhad as of March 25-27. Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal, demanding compensation and guarantees against future action, while President Trump paused strikes on energy plants amid stalled talks. This escalation drives trader consensus at 95.5% for military action persisting through March 31, reflecting the regime's hardened stance and absence of de-escalation signals. Potential shifts could arise from breakthrough diplomacy, unilateral halts, or Iranian capitulation amid mounting pressure.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAcción militar hasta el 31 de marzo 95%
31 de marzo 1.2%
30 de marzo <1%
29 de marzo <1%
$2,724,161 Vol.
$2,724,161 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29 de marzo
1%
30 de marzo
1%
31 de marzo
1%
Acción militar hasta el 31 de marzo
95%
Acción militar hasta el 31 de marzo 95%
31 de marzo 1.2%
30 de marzo <1%
29 de marzo <1%
$2,724,161 Vol.
$2,724,161 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29 de marzo
$299,961 Vol.
1%
30 de marzo
$285,451 Vol.
1%
31 de marzo
$413,432 Vol.
1%
Acción militar hasta el 31 de marzo
$577,430 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury continue unabated against Iranian military infrastructure, including recent hits on nuclear sites in Isfahan and Arak heavy-water facilities, as well as command posts and factories in Tehran and Mashhad as of March 25-27. Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal, demanding compensation and guarantees against future action, while President Trump paused strikes on energy plants amid stalled talks. This escalation drives trader consensus at 95.5% for military action persisting through March 31, reflecting the regime's hardened stance and absence of de-escalation signals. Potential shifts could arise from breakthrough diplomacy, unilateral halts, or Iranian capitulation amid mounting pressure.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$2,724,161Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury continue unabated against Iranian military infrastructure, including recent hits on nuclear sites in Isfahan and Arak heavy-water facilities, as well as command posts and factories in Tehran and Mashhad as of March 25-27. Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal, demanding compensation and guarantees against future action, while President Trump paused strikes on energy plants amid stalled talks. This escalation drives trader consensus at 95.5% for military action persisting through March 31, reflecting the regime's hardened stance and absence of de-escalation signals. Potential shifts could arise from breakthrough diplomacy, unilateral halts, or Iranian capitulation amid mounting pressure.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,724,161Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
US-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury continue unabated against Iranian military infrastructure, including recent hits on nuclear sites in Isfahan and Arak heavy-water facilities, as well as command posts and factories in Tehran and Mashhad as of March 25-27. Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal, demanding compensation and guarantees against future action, while President Trump paused strikes on energy plants amid stalled talks. This escalation drives trader consensus at 95.5% for military action persisting through March 31, reflecting the regime's hardened stance and absence of de-escalation signals. Potential shifts could arise from breakthrough diplomacy, unilateral halts, or Iranian capitulation amid mounting pressure.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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