Nicolás Maduro's firm grip on power drives the 99.9% "No" consensus on exile to Russia by March 31, reinforced by his January 10 inauguration for a third term despite disputed July 2024 election results and opposition claims of fraud led by Edmundo González. Venezuelan military loyalty, judicial control, and suppression of protests have solidified regime stability, with allies like Russia providing diplomatic backing rather than asylum signals. No recent defections, coups, or international pressures indicate flight risks in the remaining weeks. While low-probability scenarios like sudden military revolt, mass unrest escalation, or health crisis could shift dynamics, traders see negligible paths to exile before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$161,964 Vol.
$161,964 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Sí
$161,964 Vol.
$161,964 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Nicolás Maduro's firm grip on power drives the 99.9% "No" consensus on exile to Russia by March 31, reinforced by his January 10 inauguration for a third term despite disputed July 2024 election results and opposition claims of fraud led by Edmundo González. Venezuelan military loyalty, judicial control, and suppression of protests have solidified regime stability, with allies like Russia providing diplomatic backing rather than asylum signals. No recent defections, coups, or international pressures indicate flight risks in the remaining weeks. While low-probability scenarios like sudden military revolt, mass unrest escalation, or health crisis could shift dynamics, traders see negligible paths to exile before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 11, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Volumen
$161,964Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Nicolás Maduro's firm grip on power drives the 99.9% "No" consensus on exile to Russia by March 31, reinforced by his January 10 inauguration for a third term despite disputed July 2024 election results and opposition claims of fraud led by Edmundo González. Venezuelan military loyalty, judicial control, and suppression of protests have solidified regime stability, with allies like Russia providing diplomatic backing rather than asylum signals. No recent defections, coups, or international pressures indicate flight risks in the remaining weeks. While low-probability scenarios like sudden military revolt, mass unrest escalation, or health crisis could shift dynamics, traders see negligible paths to exile before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$161,964Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro's firm grip on power drives the 99.9% "No" consensus on exile to Russia by March 31, reinforced by his January 10 inauguration for a third term despite disputed July 2024 election results and opposition claims of fraud led by Edmundo González. Venezuelan military loyalty, judicial control, and suppression of protests have solidified regime stability, with allies like Russia providing diplomatic backing rather than asylum signals. No recent defections, coups, or international pressures indicate flight risks in the remaining weeks. While low-probability scenarios like sudden military revolt, mass unrest escalation, or health crisis could shift dynamics, traders see negligible paths to exile before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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