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Economía·Negocios

¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?

Market icon
Economía·Negocios

¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?

0 (0 bps) 35.5%

1 (25 puntos básicos) 23%

2 (50 puntos básicos) 17%

3 (75 puntos básicos) 9%

Polymarket

$16,030,862 Vol.

0 (0 bps) 35.5%

1 (25 puntos básicos) 23%

2 (50 puntos básicos) 17%

3 (75 puntos básicos) 9%

Polymarket

$16,030,862 Vol.

0 (0 bps)

$2,750,338 Vol.

36%

1 (25 puntos básicos)

$907,490 Vol.

23%

2 (50 puntos básicos)

$835,826 Vol.

17%

3 (75 puntos básicos)

$805,202 Vol.

9%

Título del ítem del grupo: 4 (100 puntos básicos)

$816,368 Vol.

5%

Título del grupo de elementos: 5 (125 bps)

$900,803 Vol.

2%

6 (150 pb)

$1,924,698 Vol.

1%

7 (175 bps)

$811,280 Vol.

1%

8 (200 puntos básicos)

$1,051,126 Vol.

1%

9 (225 puntos básicos)

$944,216 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 puntos básicos)

$1,385,146 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 puntos básicos)

$1,260,710 Vol.

<1%

Título del ítem del grupo: 12+ (300+ puntos básicos)

$1,645,963 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 36% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with 23% for one 25 basis point cut and 17% for two, reflecting caution amid resilient economic data and inflation risks. The March FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in an 11-1 vote, signaling a hawkish tilt as Chair Powell emphasized a "wait and see" approach to geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict, which have spiked energy prices and clouded the inflation outlook. Yesterday's stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs versus 60,000 consensus, with unemployment steady at 4.3% and wages up 0.2%, bolstering growth without distress. Upcoming March CPI on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC could shift the rate path if inflation reaccelerates.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$16,030,862
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 36% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with 23% for one 25 basis point cut and 17% for two, reflecting caution amid resilient economic data and inflation risks. The March FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in an 11-1 vote, signaling a hawkish tilt as Chair Powell emphasized a "wait and see" approach to geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict, which have spiked energy prices and clouded the inflation outlook. Yesterday's stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs versus 60,000 consensus, with unemployment steady at 4.3% and wages up 0.2%, bolstering growth without distress. Upcoming March CPI on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC could shift the rate path if inflation reaccelerates.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$16,030,862
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 13 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "0 (0 bps)" con 36%, seguido de "1 (25 puntos básicos)" con 23%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 36¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 36% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" ha generado $16 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Sep 29, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?", explora los 13 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" es "0 (0 bps)" con 36%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 36% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "1 (25 puntos básicos)" con 23%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.