Trader sentiment on Polymarket shows a razor-thin contest for 2026 Fed rate cuts, with zero cuts (33%) edging one cut (27%) and two cuts (21%), reflecting repricing after an oil price spike from Iran-related geopolitical tensions eroded easing bets. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18, its dot plot median signaling one 25 basis point cut amid 4.4% unemployment projections and persistent inflation pressures. Chair Powell's March 30 remarks underscored a "wait-and-see" stance on war-driven energy shocks, contrasting brokerages' two-cut forecasts. Pivotal swing factors include April CPI releases and the March jobs report rebound, ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC where a hold is market-implied at over 95%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado0 (0 bps) 33.3%
1 (25 puntos básicos) 27%
2 (50 puntos básicos) 21%
3 (75 puntos básicos) 10%
$15,629,324 Vol.
$15,629,324 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0 (0 bps)
33%
1 (25 puntos básicos)
27%
2 (50 puntos básicos)
21%
3 (75 puntos básicos)
10%
Título del ítem del grupo: 4 (100 puntos básicos)
5%
Título del grupo de elementos: 5 (125 bps)
2%
6 (150 pb)
1%
7 (175 bps)
1%
8 (200 puntos básicos)
1%
9 (225 puntos básicos)
<1%
10 (250 puntos básicos)
<1%
11 (275 puntos básicos)
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: 12+ (300+ puntos básicos)
1%
0 (0 bps) 33.3%
1 (25 puntos básicos) 27%
2 (50 puntos básicos) 21%
3 (75 puntos básicos) 10%
$15,629,324 Vol.
$15,629,324 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0 (0 bps)
$2,708,230 Vol.
33%
1 (25 puntos básicos)
$896,722 Vol.
27%
2 (50 puntos básicos)
$824,858 Vol.
21%
3 (75 puntos básicos)
$795,732 Vol.
10%
Título del ítem del grupo: 4 (100 puntos básicos)
$808,897 Vol.
5%
Título del grupo de elementos: 5 (125 bps)
$867,662 Vol.
2%
6 (150 pb)
$1,894,164 Vol.
1%
7 (175 bps)
$801,621 Vol.
1%
8 (200 puntos básicos)
$1,032,602 Vol.
1%
9 (225 puntos básicos)
$864,464 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 puntos básicos)
$1,355,441 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 puntos básicos)
$1,149,330 Vol.
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: 12+ (300+ puntos básicos)
$1,629,796 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment on Polymarket shows a razor-thin contest for 2026 Fed rate cuts, with zero cuts (33%) edging one cut (27%) and two cuts (21%), reflecting repricing after an oil price spike from Iran-related geopolitical tensions eroded easing bets. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18, its dot plot median signaling one 25 basis point cut amid 4.4% unemployment projections and persistent inflation pressures. Chair Powell's March 30 remarks underscored a "wait-and-see" stance on war-driven energy shocks, contrasting brokerages' two-cut forecasts. Pivotal swing factors include April CPI releases and the March jobs report rebound, ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC where a hold is market-implied at over 95%.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Mercado abierto: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volumen
$15,629,324Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment on Polymarket shows a razor-thin contest for 2026 Fed rate cuts, with zero cuts (33%) edging one cut (27%) and two cuts (21%), reflecting repricing after an oil price spike from Iran-related geopolitical tensions eroded easing bets. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18, its dot plot median signaling one 25 basis point cut amid 4.4% unemployment projections and persistent inflation pressures. Chair Powell's March 30 remarks underscored a "wait-and-see" stance on war-driven energy shocks, contrasting brokerages' two-cut forecasts. Pivotal swing factors include April CPI releases and the March jobs report rebound, ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC where a hold is market-implied at over 95%.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$15,629,324Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket shows a razor-thin contest for 2026 Fed rate cuts, with zero cuts (33%) edging one cut (27%) and two cuts (21%), reflecting repricing after an oil price spike from Iran-related geopolitical tensions eroded easing bets. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18, its dot plot median signaling one 25 basis point cut amid 4.4% unemployment projections and persistent inflation pressures. Chair Powell's March 30 remarks underscored a "wait-and-see" stance on war-driven energy shocks, contrasting brokerages' two-cut forecasts. Pivotal swing factors include April CPI releases and the March jobs report rebound, ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC where a hold is market-implied at over 95%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes