Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 7-10 countries at 30.6% for seven and 23.4% for eight, reflecting confirmed U.S. airstrikes and operations in Iran (joint strikes since February 28 amid nuclear tensions), Venezuela (January bombing of Caracas), Yemen (ongoing Houthi campaign), Somalia (nearly 50 AFRICOM strikes targeting militants), Syria and Iraq (ISIS counterterrorism), and Nigeria (extremist operations). This tight clustering persists due to first-quarter accumulation nearing seven distinct nations under Trump's expanded force posture, yet with nine months left for escalation—Trump's April 3 warning of further Iran degradation, Houthi drone attacks on March 29, and rhetoric on Latin American narco-threats in Ecuador, Colombia, or Cuba could push toward nine or ten without resolution until year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Contra cuántos países diferentes llevará a cabo Estados Unidos una acción militar en 2026?
¿Contra cuántos países diferentes llevará a cabo Estados Unidos una acción militar en 2026?
7 30.5%
8 23.9%
9 16.2%
10 12.0%
$724,528 Vol.
$724,528 Vol.
31 dic 2026
6
12%
7
31%
8
24%
9
16%
10
12%
11
4%
12
2%
13
2%
14
1%
15+
4%
7 30.5%
8 23.9%
9 16.2%
10 12.0%
$724,528 Vol.
$724,528 Vol.
31 dic 2026
6
$417,366 Vol.
12%
7
$3,938 Vol.
31%
8
$8,241 Vol.
24%
9
$8,921 Vol.
16%
10
$10,292 Vol.
12%
11
$8,061 Vol.
4%
12
$10,045 Vol.
2%
13
$7,250 Vol.
2%
14
$41,441 Vol.
1%
15+
$49,132 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 7-10 countries at 30.6% for seven and 23.4% for eight, reflecting confirmed U.S. airstrikes and operations in Iran (joint strikes since February 28 amid nuclear tensions), Venezuela (January bombing of Caracas), Yemen (ongoing Houthi campaign), Somalia (nearly 50 AFRICOM strikes targeting militants), Syria and Iraq (ISIS counterterrorism), and Nigeria (extremist operations). This tight clustering persists due to first-quarter accumulation nearing seven distinct nations under Trump's expanded force posture, yet with nine months left for escalation—Trump's April 3 warning of further Iran degradation, Houthi drone attacks on March 29, and rhetoric on Latin American narco-threats in Ecuador, Colombia, or Cuba could push toward nine or ten without resolution until year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Volumen
$724,528Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 7-10 countries at 30.6% for seven and 23.4% for eight, reflecting confirmed U.S. airstrikes and operations in Iran (joint strikes since February 28 amid nuclear tensions), Venezuela (January bombing of Caracas), Yemen (ongoing Houthi campaign), Somalia (nearly 50 AFRICOM strikes targeting militants), Syria and Iraq (ISIS counterterrorism), and Nigeria (extremist operations). This tight clustering persists due to first-quarter accumulation nearing seven distinct nations under Trump's expanded force posture, yet with nine months left for escalation—Trump's April 3 warning of further Iran degradation, Houthi drone attacks on March 29, and rhetoric on Latin American narco-threats in Ecuador, Colombia, or Cuba could push toward nine or ten without resolution until year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$724,528Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 7-10 countries at 30.6% for seven and 23.4% for eight, reflecting confirmed U.S. airstrikes and operations in Iran (joint strikes since February 28 amid nuclear tensions), Venezuela (January bombing of Caracas), Yemen (ongoing Houthi campaign), Somalia (nearly 50 AFRICOM strikes targeting militants), Syria and Iraq (ISIS counterterrorism), and Nigeria (extremist operations). This tight clustering persists due to first-quarter accumulation nearing seven distinct nations under Trump's expanded force posture, yet with nine months left for escalation—Trump's April 3 warning of further Iran degradation, Houthi drone attacks on March 29, and rhetoric on Latin American narco-threats in Ecuador, Colombia, or Cuba could push toward nine or ten without resolution until year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes