Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for NATO invoking Article 5 before 2027, reflecting sustained alliance deterrence amid persistent but contained geopolitical tensions. No armed attacks on NATO territory have occurred despite Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine—which remains outside the collective defense clause—and hybrid threats like airspace violations in the Baltic states. In March 2026, Iranian ballistic missiles over Turkish airspace prompted no invocation, with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte explicitly ruling it out due to insufficient scale. Recent intelligence warnings of potential Russian probes to test Article 5 resolve have not materialized into qualifying incidents, bolstering eastern flank defenses and underscoring the clause's single historical use post-9/11 against non-state actors. Escalation barriers persist through 2026.