The 92% implied probability on "No" for the Nord Stream pipelines restarting before 2027 reflects trader consensus on entrenched geopolitical barriers stemming from Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which prompted EU sanctions on Russian energy imports and accelerated diversification to LNG from the US, Qatar, and Norway. Both Nord Stream 1 and 2 lines remain inoperable following unexplained underwater explosions in September 2022, with sabotage investigations by Germany, Sweden, and Denmark yielding no conclusive repair plans or operator commitments from Gazprom or Wintershall Dea. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days, as EU energy ministers affirm no return to Russian pipeline gas amid ongoing conflict and security concerns; a dramatic de-escalation in Ukraine-Russia tensions or policy reversal would be needed to shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
Sí
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91..."Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The 92% implied probability on "No" for the Nord Stream pipelines restarting before 2027 reflects trader consensus on entrenched geopolitical barriers stemming from Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which prompted EU sanctions on Russian energy imports and accelerated diversification to LNG from the US, Qatar, and Norway. Both Nord Stream 1 and 2 lines remain inoperable following unexplained underwater explosions in September 2022, with sabotage investigations by Germany, Sweden, and Denmark yielding no conclusive repair plans or operator commitments from Gazprom or Wintershall Dea. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days, as EU energy ministers affirm no return to Russian pipeline gas amid ongoing conflict and security concerns; a dramatic de-escalation in Ukraine-Russia tensions or policy reversal would be needed to shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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