NATO's institutional framework and treaty structure make rapid dissolution highly improbable before 2027, driving the 98.4% trader consensus on "No." The alliance has expanded with recent members, maintained unified positions on collective defense amid ongoing European security challenges, and shown no formal withdrawal processes or summit-level discussions of dissolution. Primary actors including the United States, major European states, and alliance leadership continue coordinated policy through established channels, with no legislative or diplomatic moves toward ending the organization. While extreme scenarios such as coordinated mass withdrawals, fundamental shifts in U.S. foreign policy, or a complete realignment of transatlantic relations could theoretically alter this trajectory, none appear imminent within the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La OTAN se disuelve antes de 2027?
¿La OTAN se disuelve antes de 2027?
Sí
2% probabilidad
$123,908 Vol.
$123,908 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
2% probabilidad
$123,908 Vol.
$123,908 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NATO's institutional framework and treaty structure make rapid dissolution highly improbable before 2027, driving the 98.4% trader consensus on "No." The alliance has expanded with recent members, maintained unified positions on collective defense amid ongoing European security challenges, and shown no formal withdrawal processes or summit-level discussions of dissolution. Primary actors including the United States, major European states, and alliance leadership continue coordinated policy through established channels, with no legislative or diplomatic moves toward ending the organization. While extreme scenarios such as coordinated mass withdrawals, fundamental shifts in U.S. foreign policy, or a complete realignment of transatlantic relations could theoretically alter this trajectory, none appear imminent within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volumen
$123,908Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NATO's institutional framework and treaty structure make rapid dissolution highly improbable before 2027, driving the 98.4% trader consensus on "No." The alliance has expanded with recent members, maintained unified positions on collective defense amid ongoing European security challenges, and shown no formal withdrawal processes or summit-level discussions of dissolution. Primary actors including the United States, major European states, and alliance leadership continue coordinated policy through established channels, with no legislative or diplomatic moves toward ending the organization. While extreme scenarios such as coordinated mass withdrawals, fundamental shifts in U.S. foreign policy, or a complete realignment of transatlantic relations could theoretically alter this trajectory, none appear imminent within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$123,908Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NATO's institutional framework and treaty structure make rapid dissolution highly improbable before 2027, driving the 98.4% trader consensus on "No." The alliance has expanded with recent members, maintained unified positions on collective defense amid ongoing European security challenges, and shown no formal withdrawal processes or summit-level discussions of dissolution. Primary actors including the United States, major European states, and alliance leadership continue coordinated policy through established channels, with no legislative or diplomatic moves toward ending the organization. While extreme scenarios such as coordinated mass withdrawals, fundamental shifts in U.S. foreign policy, or a complete realignment of transatlantic relations could theoretically alter this trajectory, none appear imminent within the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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