Trader consensus on a 96.3% implied probability for no EU dissolution before 2027 reflects the bloc's entrenched stability, reinforced by deep economic interdependence via the single market, eurozone monetary union, and shared foreign policy on Ukraine and defense. No member state has invoked Article 50 since Brexit in 2020, and recent developments—such as EU leaders' March 2026 deadlines to strengthen cross-border services amid global tensions, alongside ongoing Entry/Exit System rollout—underscore integration efforts rather than fragmentation. Populist anti-EU rhetoric persists in France and Hungary, but lacks parliamentary majorities for referendums or withdrawals. Realistic shifts could stem from a severe sovereign debt crisis in Italy or France, or escalated geopolitical shocks prompting multiple exits, though structural barriers like treaty exit timelines make this improbable within nine months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La UE se disuelve antes de 2027?
¿La UE se disuelve antes de 2027?
Sí
$159,675 Vol.
$159,675 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$159,675 Vol.
$159,675 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on a 96.3% implied probability for no EU dissolution before 2027 reflects the bloc's entrenched stability, reinforced by deep economic interdependence via the single market, eurozone monetary union, and shared foreign policy on Ukraine and defense. No member state has invoked Article 50 since Brexit in 2020, and recent developments—such as EU leaders' March 2026 deadlines to strengthen cross-border services amid global tensions, alongside ongoing Entry/Exit System rollout—underscore integration efforts rather than fragmentation. Populist anti-EU rhetoric persists in France and Hungary, but lacks parliamentary majorities for referendums or withdrawals. Realistic shifts could stem from a severe sovereign debt crisis in Italy or France, or escalated geopolitical shocks prompting multiple exits, though structural barriers like treaty exit timelines make this improbable within nine months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Volumen
$159,675Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on a 96.3% implied probability for no EU dissolution before 2027 reflects the bloc's entrenched stability, reinforced by deep economic interdependence via the single market, eurozone monetary union, and shared foreign policy on Ukraine and defense. No member state has invoked Article 50 since Brexit in 2020, and recent developments—such as EU leaders' March 2026 deadlines to strengthen cross-border services amid global tensions, alongside ongoing Entry/Exit System rollout—underscore integration efforts rather than fragmentation. Populist anti-EU rhetoric persists in France and Hungary, but lacks parliamentary majorities for referendums or withdrawals. Realistic shifts could stem from a severe sovereign debt crisis in Italy or France, or escalated geopolitical shocks prompting multiple exits, though structural barriers like treaty exit timelines make this improbable within nine months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$159,675Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a 96.3% implied probability for no EU dissolution before 2027 reflects the bloc's entrenched stability, reinforced by deep economic interdependence via the single market, eurozone monetary union, and shared foreign policy on Ukraine and defense. No member state has invoked Article 50 since Brexit in 2020, and recent developments—such as EU leaders' March 2026 deadlines to strengthen cross-border services amid global tensions, alongside ongoing Entry/Exit System rollout—underscore integration efforts rather than fragmentation. Populist anti-EU rhetoric persists in France and Hungary, but lacks parliamentary majorities for referendums or withdrawals. Realistic shifts could stem from a severe sovereign debt crisis in Italy or France, or escalated geopolitical shocks prompting multiple exits, though structural barriers like treaty exit timelines make this improbable within nine months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes