Recent Houthi ballistic missile attacks on Israel on March 27-28, marking Yemen's entry into the US-Israel war against Iran, have boosted trader expectations for Israeli retaliation there alongside ongoing airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria. This keeps ≥4 countries (47%) narrowly ahead of 3 (38%), as markets balance entrenched multi-front escalation—intensified by Hezbollah rocket fire and recent Syrian government strikes—with uncertainty over expanding to Yemen amid resource strains. Direct hits on Houthi targets or Iraqi militia activations could widen the gap toward ≥4, while diplomatic breakthroughs or Iran-focused restraint might solidify 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHow many different countries will Israel strike in April?
How many different countries will Israel strike in April?
≥4 47%
3 38%
2 14%
≤1 2.8%
$11,149 Vol.
$11,149 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
3%
2
14%
3
38%
≥4
47%
≥4 47%
3 38%
2 14%
≤1 2.8%
$11,149 Vol.
$11,149 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$2,720 Vol.
3%
2
$1,251 Vol.
14%
3
$2,432 Vol.
38%
≥4
$4,745 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Houthi ballistic missile attacks on Israel on March 27-28, marking Yemen's entry into the US-Israel war against Iran, have boosted trader expectations for Israeli retaliation there alongside ongoing airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria. This keeps ≥4 countries (47%) narrowly ahead of 3 (38%), as markets balance entrenched multi-front escalation—intensified by Hezbollah rocket fire and recent Syrian government strikes—with uncertainty over expanding to Yemen amid resource strains. Direct hits on Houthi targets or Iraqi militia activations could widen the gap toward ≥4, while diplomatic breakthroughs or Iran-focused restraint might solidify 3.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volumen
$11,149Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Houthi ballistic missile attacks on Israel on March 27-28, marking Yemen's entry into the US-Israel war against Iran, have boosted trader expectations for Israeli retaliation there alongside ongoing airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria. This keeps ≥4 countries (47%) narrowly ahead of 3 (38%), as markets balance entrenched multi-front escalation—intensified by Hezbollah rocket fire and recent Syrian government strikes—with uncertainty over expanding to Yemen amid resource strains. Direct hits on Houthi targets or Iraqi militia activations could widen the gap toward ≥4, while diplomatic breakthroughs or Iran-focused restraint might solidify 3.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$11,149Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi ballistic missile attacks on Israel on March 27-28, marking Yemen's entry into the US-Israel war against Iran, have boosted trader expectations for Israeli retaliation there alongside ongoing airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria. This keeps ≥4 countries (47%) narrowly ahead of 3 (38%), as markets balance entrenched multi-front escalation—intensified by Hezbollah rocket fire and recent Syrian government strikes—with uncertainty over expanding to Yemen amid resource strains. Direct hits on Houthi targets or Iraqi militia activations could widen the gap toward ≥4, while diplomatic breakthroughs or Iran-focused restraint might solidify 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes