Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a high temperature of exactly 13°C in Paris on March 25, backed by the latest Météo-France and ECMWF forecast ensembles showing tight clustering around this value amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly flows. Current observations confirm stable mild conditions over Western Europe, with surface temperatures hovering near seasonal norms (historical late-March highs average 12–14°C) and no advection of warmer air masses. Model agreement stems from consistent guidance on light winds and overcast skies suppressing daytime heating. Scenarios challenging this include a sudden clear-sky breakout or unexpected southerly wind shift boosting solar insolation, though upper-air patterns make such shifts improbable; watch for final hourly updates from official Paris stations as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Paris on March 25?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 25?
13°C 100.0%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$213,553 Vol.
$213,553 Vol.
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
13°C 100.0%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$213,553 Vol.
$213,553 Vol.
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a high temperature of exactly 13°C in Paris on March 25, backed by the latest Météo-France and ECMWF forecast ensembles showing tight clustering around this value amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly flows. Current observations confirm stable mild conditions over Western Europe, with surface temperatures hovering near seasonal norms (historical late-March highs average 12–14°C) and no advection of warmer air masses. Model agreement stems from consistent guidance on light winds and overcast skies suppressing daytime heating. Scenarios challenging this include a sudden clear-sky breakout or unexpected southerly wind shift boosting solar insolation, though upper-air patterns make such shifts improbable; watch for final hourly updates from official Paris stations as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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