Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 60-61°F in New York City on March 27 at 32% implied probability, reflecting the latest National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which project mild conditions under a building upper-level ridge amid weak southerly flow. This positioning stems from recent observational data showing above-normal temperatures earlier in the week, with minimal cold front interference expected; however, high uncertainty—evident in the fragmented probabilities—arises from potential cloud cover variations, diurnal mixing, and slight model divergences on boundary layer stability. Historical March averages hover around 52°F, but current climatological analogs support the 58-65°F cluster. Watch for NWS updates and afternoon soundings later today, which could refine peak temperature trajectories.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on March 27?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 27?
60-61°F 32%
62-63°F 21%
58-59°F 19%
56-57°F 11%
$28,345 Vol.
$28,345 Vol.
49°F o menos
<1%
50-51°F
1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
5%
56-57°F
11%
58-59°F
19%
60-61°F
32%
62-63°F
21%
64-65°F
10%
66-67°F
2%
68°F or higher
1%
60-61°F 32%
62-63°F 21%
58-59°F 19%
56-57°F 11%
$28,345 Vol.
$28,345 Vol.
49°F o menos
<1%
50-51°F
1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
5%
56-57°F
11%
58-59°F
19%
60-61°F
32%
62-63°F
21%
64-65°F
10%
66-67°F
2%
68°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 60-61°F in New York City on March 27 at 32% implied probability, reflecting the latest National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which project mild conditions under a building upper-level ridge amid weak southerly flow. This positioning stems from recent observational data showing above-normal temperatures earlier in the week, with minimal cold front interference expected; however, high uncertainty—evident in the fragmented probabilities—arises from potential cloud cover variations, diurnal mixing, and slight model divergences on boundary layer stability. Historical March averages hover around 52°F, but current climatological analogs support the 58-65°F cluster. Watch for NWS updates and afternoon soundings later today, which could refine peak temperature trajectories.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes