Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Munich's highest temperature on April 9, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing a broad spread of projected maxima from around 8°C to 16°C, driving near-equal implied probabilities across those outcomes and a lower tail risk below 6°C. This stems from an evolving upper-air pattern over Central Europe, where jet stream waviness could steer mild Atlantic air for highs near 14°C—the April climatological average at Munich Airport—or channel cooler continental polar flow for 10°C readings, modulated by cloud cover and boundary-layer stability. Recent 48-hour model runs indicate no dominant consensus, with daily updates from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and global ensembles likely to refine odds as resolution nears via official station data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Munich on April 9?
Highest temperature in Munich on April 9?
16°C or higher 29%
15°C 28%
14°C 28%
13°C 27%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 abr 2026
6°C or below
6%
7°C
4%
8°C
22%
9°C
26%
10°C
25%
11°C
25%
12°C
26%
13°C
27%
14°C
28%
15°C
28%
16°C or higher
29%
16°C or higher 29%
15°C 28%
14°C 28%
13°C 27%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 abr 2026
6°C or below
$110 Vol.
6%
7°C
$17 Vol.
4%
8°C
$17 Vol.
22%
9°C
$7 Vol.
26%
10°C
$7 Vol.
25%
11°C
$7 Vol.
25%
12°C
$9 Vol.
26%
13°C
$7 Vol.
27%
14°C
$7 Vol.
28%
15°C
$7 Vol.
28%
16°C or higher
$7 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Munich's highest temperature on April 9, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing a broad spread of projected maxima from around 8°C to 16°C, driving near-equal implied probabilities across those outcomes and a lower tail risk below 6°C. This stems from an evolving upper-air pattern over Central Europe, where jet stream waviness could steer mild Atlantic air for highs near 14°C—the April climatological average at Munich Airport—or channel cooler continental polar flow for 10°C readings, modulated by cloud cover and boundary-layer stability. Recent 48-hour model runs indicate no dominant consensus, with daily updates from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and global ensembles likely to refine odds as resolution nears via official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 5, 2026, 1:00 AM ET
Volumen
$203Fecha de finalización
9 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 5, 2026, 1:00 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Munich's highest temperature on April 9, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing a broad spread of projected maxima from around 8°C to 16°C, driving near-equal implied probabilities across those outcomes and a lower tail risk below 6°C. This stems from an evolving upper-air pattern over Central Europe, where jet stream waviness could steer mild Atlantic air for highs near 14°C—the April climatological average at Munich Airport—or channel cooler continental polar flow for 10°C readings, modulated by cloud cover and boundary-layer stability. Recent 48-hour model runs indicate no dominant consensus, with daily updates from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and global ensembles likely to refine odds as resolution nears via official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$203Fecha de finalización
9 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 5, 2026, 1:00 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Munich's highest temperature on April 9, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing a broad spread of projected maxima from around 8°C to 16°C, driving near-equal implied probabilities across those outcomes and a lower tail risk below 6°C. This stems from an evolving upper-air pattern over Central Europe, where jet stream waviness could steer mild Atlantic air for highs near 14°C—the April climatological average at Munich Airport—or channel cooler continental polar flow for 10°C readings, modulated by cloud cover and boundary-layer stability. Recent 48-hour model runs indicate no dominant consensus, with daily updates from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and global ensembles likely to refine odds as resolution nears via official station data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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