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Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?

Mar 29

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Mar 29

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

59°F or below 41%

78°F or higher 40%

74-75°F 26%

76-77°F 25%

Polymarket
NEW

59°F or below 41%

78°F or higher 40%

74-75°F 26%

76-77°F 25%

Polymarket
NEW

59°F or below

$5 Vol.

41%

60-61°F

$101 Vol.

9%

62-63°F

$0 Vol.

17%

64-65°F

$0 Vol.

17%

66-67°F

$0 Vol.

17%

68-69°F

$0 Vol.

17%

70-71°F

$0 Vol.

17%

72-73°F

$0 Vol.

17%

74-75°F

$0 Vol.

26%

76-77°F

$0 Vol.

25%

78°F or higher

$0 Vol.

40%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 4, with market-implied odds splitting nearly evenly at 40.5% for 59°F or below versus 78°F or higher, diverging from the National Weather Service's operational forecast of 72°F under sunny skies. This bimodal sentiment stems from model spread in NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles: cooler outcomes hinge on persistent marine layer stratus suppressing daytime heating amid weak onshore flow post-midweek rain, while hotter scenarios depend on stronger upper-level subsidence and offshore winds eroding clouds for rapid warming. Historical April highs average 64°F with notable variability from coastal microclimates; daily 00Z/12Z model updates through April 3 will clarify steering patterns and boundary layer evolution critical to resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 4, with market-implied odds splitting nearly evenly at 40.5% for 59°F or below versus 78°F or higher, diverging from the National Weather Service's operational forecast of 72°F under sunny skies. This bimodal sentiment stems from model spread in NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles: cooler outcomes hinge on persistent marine layer stratus suppressing daytime heating amid weak onshore flow post-midweek rain, while hotter scenarios depend on stronger upper-level subsidence and offshore winds eroding clouds for rapid warming. Historical April highs average 64°F with notable variability from coastal microclimates; daily 00Z/12Z model updates through April 3 will clarify steering patterns and boundary layer evolution critical to resolution.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 4, with market-implied odds splitting nearly evenly at 40.5% for 59°F or below versus 78°F or higher, diverging from the National Weather Service's operational forecast of 72°F under sunny skies. This bimodal sentiment stems from model spread in NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles: cooler outcomes hinge on persistent marine layer stratus suppressing daytime heating amid weak onshore flow post-midweek rain, while hotter scenarios depend on stronger upper-level subsidence and offshore winds eroding clouds for rapid warming. Historical April highs average 64°F with notable variability from coastal microclimates; daily 00Z/12Z model updates through April 3 will clarify steering patterns and boundary layer evolution critical to resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 4, with market-implied odds splitting nearly evenly at 40.5% for 59°F or below versus 78°F or higher, diverging from the National Weather Service's operational forecast of 72°F under sunny skies. This bimodal sentiment stems from model spread in NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles: cooler outcomes hinge on persistent marine layer stratus suppressing daytime heating amid weak onshore flow post-midweek rain, while hotter scenarios depend on stronger upper-level subsidence and offshore winds eroding clouds for rapid warming. Historical April highs average 64°F with notable variability from coastal microclimates; daily 00Z/12Z model updates through April 3 will clarify steering patterns and boundary layer evolution critical to resolution.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "59°F or below" con 41%, seguido de "78°F or higher" con 40%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 41¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 41% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 29, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?" es "59°F or below" con 41%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 41% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "78°F or higher" con 40%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.