Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts, with the April 3 afternoon update projecting Tokyo's April 5 high near 25°C under cloudy skies and 60% chance of occasional rain—yet implied probabilities peak at 22°C (31.5%) amid hedging on cloud cover suppressing peak insolation and frontal moisture limiting daytime heating. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads on boundary layer stability, southerly flow advection, and precipitation timing, as partial cloudiness could cap temperatures at 21°C while clearer breaks push toward 23°C or higher; historical early-April highs average 19°C, but recent mild trends and urban heat effects add variability. Watch JMA's April 4 updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution at Tokyo's official observatory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 5 de abril?
¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 5 de abril?
22°C 34%
21°C 31%
23°C o más 29%
20°C 9%
$14,650 Vol.
$14,650 Vol.
5 abr 2026
13°C o menos
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
4%
19°C
4%
20°C
9%
21°C
31%
22°C
34%
23°C o más
29%
22°C 34%
21°C 31%
23°C o más 29%
20°C 9%
$14,650 Vol.
$14,650 Vol.
5 abr 2026
13°C o menos
$1,905 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,569 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,863 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,992 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$823 Vol.
1%
18°C
$1,077 Vol.
4%
19°C
$961 Vol.
4%
20°C
$1,105 Vol.
9%
21°C
$1,057 Vol.
31%
22°C
$824 Vol.
34%
23°C o más
$1,480 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts, with the April 3 afternoon update projecting Tokyo's April 5 high near 25°C under cloudy skies and 60% chance of occasional rain—yet implied probabilities peak at 22°C (31.5%) amid hedging on cloud cover suppressing peak insolation and frontal moisture limiting daytime heating. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads on boundary layer stability, southerly flow advection, and precipitation timing, as partial cloudiness could cap temperatures at 21°C while clearer breaks push toward 23°C or higher; historical early-April highs average 19°C, but recent mild trends and urban heat effects add variability. Watch JMA's April 4 updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution at Tokyo's official observatory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volumen
$14,650Fecha de finalización
5 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts, with the April 3 afternoon update projecting Tokyo's April 5 high near 25°C under cloudy skies and 60% chance of occasional rain—yet implied probabilities peak at 22°C (31.5%) amid hedging on cloud cover suppressing peak insolation and frontal moisture limiting daytime heating. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads on boundary layer stability, southerly flow advection, and precipitation timing, as partial cloudiness could cap temperatures at 21°C while clearer breaks push toward 23°C or higher; historical early-April highs average 19°C, but recent mild trends and urban heat effects add variability. Watch JMA's April 4 updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution at Tokyo's official observatory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$14,650Fecha de finalización
5 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts, with the April 3 afternoon update projecting Tokyo's April 5 high near 25°C under cloudy skies and 60% chance of occasional rain—yet implied probabilities peak at 22°C (31.5%) amid hedging on cloud cover suppressing peak insolation and frontal moisture limiting daytime heating. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads on boundary layer stability, southerly flow advection, and precipitation timing, as partial cloudiness could cap temperatures at 21°C while clearer breaks push toward 23°C or higher; historical early-April highs average 19°C, but recent mild trends and urban heat effects add variability. Watch JMA's April 4 updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution at Tokyo's official observatory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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