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Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

19°C 23.1%

18°C 20%

17°C 19%

20°C 18%

Polymarket
NEW

19°C 23.1%

18°C 20%

17°C 19%

20°C 18%

Polymarket
NEW

11°C or below

$424 Vol.

1%

12°C

$5 Vol.

9%

13°C

$25 Vol.

6%

14°C

$5 Vol.

12%

15°C

$5 Vol.

15%

16°C

$5 Vol.

17%

17°C

$5 Vol.

24%

18°C

$15 Vol.

21%

19°C

$77 Vol.

22%

20°C

$5 Vol.

18%

21°C or higher

$5 Vol.

19%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest one-week forecast, updated March 29, projects a high of 18°C in Tokyo on April 4 under cloudy conditions with a 50% chance of scattered showers, driving trader consensus toward outcomes between 17°C and 20°C with implied probabilities tightly clustered in the 20-28% range. This reflects model ensemble uncertainty, where persistent cloud cover and potential showers could limit solar insolation and cap peaks at 17°C or below, while partial clearing—seen in the prior day's partly cloudy 20°C outlook—might boost highs to 19-20°C amid early spring warming trends above historical early-April norms of 15-16°C. Key differentiators include frontal boundary proximity influencing precipitation and diurnal temperature ranges; watch JMA's daily advisories and ECMWF/GFS model runs for shifts before resolution.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest one-week forecast, updated March 29, projects a high of 18°C in Tokyo on April 4 under cloudy conditions with a 50% chance of scattered showers, driving trader consensus toward outcomes between 17°C and 20°C with implied probabilities tightly clustered in the 20-28% range. This reflects model ensemble uncertainty, where persistent cloud cover and potential showers could limit solar insolation and cap peaks at 17°C or below, while partial clearing—seen in the prior day's partly cloudy 20°C outlook—might boost highs to 19-20°C amid early spring warming trends above historical early-April norms of 15-16°C. Key differentiators include frontal boundary proximity influencing precipitation and diurnal temperature ranges; watch JMA's daily advisories and ECMWF/GFS model runs for shifts before resolution.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest one-week forecast, updated March 29, projects a high of 18°C in Tokyo on April 4 under cloudy conditions with a 50% chance of scattered showers, driving trader consensus toward outcomes between 17°C and 20°C with implied probabilities tightly clustered in the 20-28% range. This reflects model ensemble uncertainty, where persistent cloud cover and potential showers could limit solar insolation and cap peaks at 17°C or below, while partial clearing—seen in the prior day's partly cloudy 20°C outlook—might boost highs to 19-20°C amid early spring warming trends above historical early-April norms of 15-16°C. Key differentiators include frontal boundary proximity influencing precipitation and diurnal temperature ranges; watch JMA's daily advisories and ECMWF/GFS model runs for shifts before resolution.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest one-week forecast, updated March 29, projects a high of 18°C in Tokyo on April 4 under cloudy conditions with a 50% chance of scattered showers, driving trader consensus toward outcomes between 17°C and 20°C with implied probabilities tightly clustered in the 20-28% range. This reflects model ensemble uncertainty, where persistent cloud cover and potential showers could limit solar insolation and cap peaks at 17°C or below, while partial clearing—seen in the prior day's partly cloudy 20°C outlook—might boost highs to 19-20°C amid early spring warming trends above historical early-April norms of 15-16°C. Key differentiators include frontal boundary proximity influencing precipitation and diurnal temperature ranges; watch JMA's daily advisories and ECMWF/GFS model runs for shifts before resolution.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "17°C" con 24%, seguido de "19°C" con 22%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 24¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 24% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 29, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?" es "17°C" con 24%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 24% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "19°C" con 22%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.