Trader consensus favors a Miami high temperature of 82-83°F at 49% implied probability, reflecting the latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecast models showing peak daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds around 5-10 mph. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF runs released yesterday aligns on this range, with a building upper-level ridge over Florida capping extremes while warm sea surface temperatures near 78°F in the Straits of Florida support above-average warmth. Recent observations from Miami International Airport logged 81°F yesterday, consistent with climatological late-March norms averaging 79-81°F, downshifting odds from 84-85°F (17.5%) after cooler overnight lows. Low model spread signals high confidence, though traders eye today's 12Z NWS update for any tweaks ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Miami el 26 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Miami el 26 de marzo?
82-83°F 50%
80-81°F 29%
84-85°F 18%
78-79°F 3.1%
$53,171 Vol.
$53,171 Vol.
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
29%
82-83°F
50%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
1%
90°F o más
<1%
82-83°F 50%
80-81°F 29%
84-85°F 18%
78-79°F 3.1%
$53,171 Vol.
$53,171 Vol.
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
29%
82-83°F
50%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
1%
90°F o más
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a Miami high temperature of 82-83°F at 49% implied probability, reflecting the latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecast models showing peak daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds around 5-10 mph. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF runs released yesterday aligns on this range, with a building upper-level ridge over Florida capping extremes while warm sea surface temperatures near 78°F in the Straits of Florida support above-average warmth. Recent observations from Miami International Airport logged 81°F yesterday, consistent with climatological late-March norms averaging 79-81°F, downshifting odds from 84-85°F (17.5%) after cooler overnight lows. Low model spread signals high confidence, though traders eye today's 12Z NWS update for any tweaks ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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